Carvana Co.
$63.83
-2.7%Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 6.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 6.3, earnings yield +16.0%, momentum -2.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +40.9%, ROIC -33.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +6.9%, ROE +40.9%, ROIC -33.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.2%, momentum -2.7%, net margin +6.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Carvana Co. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Carvana Co. Fair Value Envelope
Carvana Co. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Carvana Co. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Carvana Co. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Carvana Co. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CVNA stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 400.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 88.00 to a high of 600.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 400.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 88.00 to a high of 600.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Carvana Co. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $65.35M worth of CVNA shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
13.7K
3.39M
-3.4M
-$3.39M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
62.7K
28.45M
-28.4M
-$28.45M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
89.6K
33.52M
-33.5M
-$33.52M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Gill Daniel J.
Officer: Chief Product Officer
$18.00M
Taira Thomas
Officer: President, Special Projects
$15.53M
Maroone Michael E
Director
$11.84M
Keeton Ryan S.
Officer: Chief Brand Officer
$7.30M
Breaux Paul W.
Officer: See Remarks
$5.97M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $65.35M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
cvna Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CVNA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.