Copa Holdings, S.A.
$135.84
+0.11%Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services. The company offers approximately 204 daily scheduled flights to 69 destinations in 29 countries in North, Central, and South America, as well as the Caribbean from its Panama City hub. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 91 aircraft comprising 77 Boeing 737-Next Generation aircraft and 14 Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft. Copa Holdings, S.A. was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 8.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 8.3, earnings yield +12.0%, momentum +0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +24.2%, ROIC +13.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +18.6%, ROE +24.2%, ROIC +13.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +57.8%, momentum +0.1%, net margin +18.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Copa Holdings, S.A. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Copa Holdings, S.A. Fair Value Envelope
Copa Holdings, S.A. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Copa Holdings, S.A. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Neutral working capital impact. Changes in current assets and liabilities balanced out.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Copa Holdings, S.A. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Copa Holdings, S.A. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CPA stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 180.83, with estimates ranging from a low of 156.00 to a high of 195.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 180.83, with estimates ranging from a low of 156.00 to a high of 195.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Copa Holdings, S.A. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for CPA.
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.
Insider Participation
No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.
cpa Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CPA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.