COPT Defense Properties
$31.31
-0.87%COPT is a REIT that owns, manages, leases, develops and selectively acquires office and data center properties. The majority of its portfolio is in locations that support the United States Government and its contractors, most of whom are engaged in national security, defense and information technology (IT) related activities servicing what the Company believes are growing, durable, priority missions (Defense/IT Locations). The Company also owns a portfolio of office properties located in select urban submarkets in the Greater Washington, DC/Baltimore region with durable Class-A office fundamentals and characteristics (Regional Office Properties). As of June 30, 2023, the Company derived 90% of its core portfolio annualized rental revenue from Defense/IT Locations and 10% from its Regional Office Properties. As of the same date and including 24 properties owned through unconsolidated joint ventures, COPT's core portfolio of 192 properties encompassed 22.9 million square feet and was 95% leased.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 23.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 23.2, earnings yield +4.3%, momentum -0.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +10.1%, ROIC +5.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +19.9%, ROE +10.1%, ROIC +5.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +66.2%, momentum -0.9%, net margin +19.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
COPT Defense Properties Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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COPT Defense Properties Fair Value Envelope
COPT Defense Properties Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
COPT Defense Properties Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
COPT Defense Properties Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
COPT Defense Properties Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CDP stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 36.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 33.00 to a high of 38.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 36.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 33.00 to a high of 38.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
COPT Defense Properties Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.43M worth of CDP shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
35.7K
1.15M
-1.2M
-$1.15M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
5.5K
181.10K
-181K
-$181K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
3.0K
91.56K
-92K
-$92K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Pickett C Taylor
Director
$1.03M
Hawkins Philip L
Director
$181K
Denton Robert L
Director
$127K
Trimberger Lisa G
Director
$92K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.43M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
cdp Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CDP by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.