Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
$18.01
-0.11%Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to U.S. federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 28.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 28.1, earnings yield +3.6%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +3.1%, ROIC +5.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.2%, ROE +3.1%, ROIC +5.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +82.5%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +7.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BXMT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 21.00 to a high of 21.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 21.00 to a high of 21.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $487K worth of BXMT shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
2.1K
40.10K
-40K
-$40K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
4.5K
88.91K
-89K
-$89K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
6.5K
126.69K
-127K
-$127K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
12.1K
231.37K
-231K
-$231K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Keenan Katharine A
Director, Officer: Ceo & President
$267K
Pena Fernando Austin
Director, Officer: President
$92K
Marone Anthony F. Jr
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$89K
Urbaszek Marcin
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$40K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $487K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
bxmt Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BXMT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.