Burford Capital Limited
$4.31
-5.5%Burford Capital Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides legal finance products and services. The company offers asset management services, including core legal finance, complex strategies, and post-settlement finance. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 14.9, earnings yield +6.7%, momentum -5.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.6%, ROIC +9.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +18.4%, ROE +2.6%, ROIC +9.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +52.9%, momentum -5.5%, net margin +18.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Burford Capital Limited Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Burford Capital Limited Fair Value Envelope
Burford Capital Limited Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Burford Capital Limited Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Burford Capital Limited Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Burford Capital Limited Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BUR stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.00 to a high of 5.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.00 to a high of 5.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Burford Capital Limited Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $6.49M worth of BUR shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
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9-12 Months
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444.5K
6.49M
-6.5M
-$6.49M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Bogart Christopher P
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$3.06M
Molot Jonathan Todd
Officer: Chief Investment Officer
$3.06M
Will Aviva O.
Officer: President
$255K
Perla David
Officer: Vice Chair
$102K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $6.49M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
bur Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BUR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.