Brightstar Lottery
$15.48
-0.13%A pure‑play global lottery operator - providing technology and services for regulated lotteries. Previously included gaming and iGaming operations, which were divested.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 8.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 8.1, earnings yield +12.4%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +21.1%, ROIC +4.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +13.9%, ROE +21.1%, ROIC +4.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +79.9%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +13.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Brightstar Lottery Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 6.3%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+25.0%) is outpacing price appreciation (+6.3%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Brightstar Lottery Fair Value Envelope
Brightstar Lottery Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Brightstar Lottery Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Brightstar Lottery Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Brightstar Lottery Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BRSL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 21.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 21.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Brightstar Lottery Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for BRSL.
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.
Insider Participation
No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.
brsl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BRSL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.