BL

Brightstar Lottery

BRSL·NYSE

$15.48

-0.13%
Consumer CyclicalGambling, Resorts & Casinos

A pure‑play global lottery operator - providing technology and services for regulated lotteries. Previously included gaming and iGaming operations, which were divested.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$3.12B
EPS1.9200
P/E Ratio8.06
Earnings Date02/24/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 8.1).

Valuation inputs: P/E 8.1, earnings yield +12.4%, momentum -0.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is acceptable (ROE +21.1%, ROIC +4.6%).

Profitability stack: net margin +13.9%, ROE +21.1%, ROIC +4.6%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +79.9%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +13.9%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

b

Brightstar Lottery Market vs Earnings Trajectory

BRSL · NYSE
Current Price
$15.48
EPS (TTM)
$1.20

Performance Analysis

EPS Growth

+25.0%

Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.

Price-EPS Relationship

Aligned

Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.

Stock Price Change

+6.3%

Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 6.3%.

P/E Ratio (TTM)

8.1x

Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.

Key Insight

Strong earnings growth (+25.0%) is outpacing price appreciation (+6.3%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.

BL

Brightstar Lottery Fair Value Envelope

BRSL · NYSE

Our analysis suggests that BRSL has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $15.48, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Brightstar Lottery.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $15.48
3Y-18.0%
5Y-144.0%
10Y-144.0%
3Y-39.0%
5Y-19.0%
10Y-19.0%
3Y-28.0%
5Y-139.0%
10Y-139.0%
3Y+5.0%
5Y+19.0%
10Y+19.0%
3Y+19.0%
5Y+44.0%
10Y+44.0%
3Y-9.0%
5Y-21.0%
10Y-21.0%
BL

Brightstar Lottery Profit Bridge

BRSL · NYSE
Revenue2.51B
Cost of Goods Sold (1.34B)
Gross Profit1.17B
Operating Expenses (482.00M)
Operating Income686.00M
Interest Expense (214.00M)
Other Income/Expense-165.00M
Pretax Income521.00M
Income Tax (250.00M)
Net Income348.00M
Net Income
348.00M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

46.5%

Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.

Operating Margin

27.3%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

13.9%

Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.

Effective Tax Rate

48.0%

Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

46.50%
Gross Profit Margin
-3%
3Y-3.0%
5Y+28.0%
10Y+28.0%
27.31%
Operating Profit Margin
-8%
3Y+24.0%
5Y+258.0%
10Y+258.0%
13.85%
Net Profit Margin
125%
3Y+18.0%
5Y-148.0%
10Y-148.0%
21.07%
Return on Equity
95%
3Y-44.0%
5Y-118.0%
10Y-118.0%
3.39%
Return on Assets
127%
3Y-20.0%
5Y-149.0%
10Y-149.0%
4.56%
Return on Invested Capital
-2%
3Y-
5Y+101.0%
10Y+101.0%
B

Brightstar Lottery Cash Conversion Engine

BRSL · NYSE
Net Income270.00M
Depreciation & Amortization402.00M
Stock-Based Compensation38.00M
Change in Working Capital50.00M
Others306.00M
Capital Expenditures-149.00M
Free Cash Flow881.00M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

326.3%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

14.5%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-1.3%

Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.

Working Capital Impact

+$50.00M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

b

Brightstar Lottery Funding & Solvency Profile

BRSL · NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents1.70B
Net Receivables605.00M
Inventory115.00M
Other Current Assets57.00M
Total Current Assets3 B
Property, Plant & Equipment841.00M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets2.81B
Long-Term Investments40.00M
Other Non-Current Assets3.04B
Total Non-Current Assets4 B
Total Assets
9.29B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.74x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

5.86x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

-904000000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

27% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

b

Brightstar Lottery Street Expectations Map

BRSL · NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that BRSL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 21.00.

Lowest Target
18.00
16.28%
Consensus Target
19.50
25.97%
Highest Target
21.00
35.66%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 21.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+26.0%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

15.4% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

b

Brightstar Lottery Insider Positioning

BRSL · NYSE

During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for BRSL.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Neutral

No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.

Insider Participation

No Activity

No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.

1.28%
Dividend Yield
5%
3Y+83.0%
5Y+83.0%
10Y+83.0%
 

brsl Dividend History

BRSL
10Y CAGR +7%
Latest $0.22
Annual $4.02
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +10%