Dutch Bros Inc.
$56.60
+1.5%Dutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States. The company operates through Company-Operated Shops and Franchising and Other segments. It serves through company-operated shops and online channels under Dutch Bros; Dutch Bros Coffee; Dutch Bros Rebel; Dutch Bros; and Blue Rebel brands. Dutch Bros Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Grants Pass, Oregon.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 88.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 88.4, earnings yield +1.1%, momentum +1.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +11.7%, ROIC +5.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +4.9%, ROE +11.7%, ROIC +5.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +70.2%, momentum +1.5%, net margin +4.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Dutch Bros Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Earnings are growing but price is falling—potential undervaluation opportunity if growth continues.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 21.7%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Very high P/E suggests premium valuation or high growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+35.7%) is outpacing price appreciation (+-21.7%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Dutch Bros Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Dutch Bros Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Dutch Bros Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Dutch Bros Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Dutch Bros Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BROS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 74.85, with estimates ranging from a low of 61.00 to a high of 87.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 74.85, with estimates ranging from a low of 61.00 to a high of 87.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Dutch Bros Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $102K and sold $197.71M worth of BROS shares, resulting in $197.61M of net selling activity.
3 Months
2.0K
102.35K
977.9K
55.96M
-55.9M
-$55.86M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
156.9K
8.31M
-8.3M
-$8.31M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
2.0M
133.44M
-133.4M
-$133.44M
Top Buyers
Penegor Todd Allan
Director
$102K
Top Sellers
Boersma Travis
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Executive Chairman Of Board
$101.44M
Dm Trust Aggregator, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$59.10M
Dm Individual Aggregator, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$37.17M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $197.61M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
bros Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BROS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.