BC - NYSE

Good morning, and welcome to Brunswick Corporation's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's meeting will be recorded. If you have any objections you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Stephen Weiland, Senior Vice President and Deputy CFO, Brunswick Corporation.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning is David Foulkes, Brunswick's Chairman and CEO; and Ryan Gwillim, Brunswick's CFO. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations. For details on the factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release. All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com. During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix to this presentation and the reconciliation sections of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results. I will now turn the call over to Dave.

Thanks, Steve. Brunswick delivered strong third quarter results, with each reporting segment generating revenue growth over the prior year quarter and overall financial performance exceeding expectations and guidance for the quarter. The sales growth reflected strength across all our businesses despite a challenging, albeit improving macro environment and industry backdrop. Our market-leading propulsion and boat portfolios outperformed their respective markets, and our recurring revenue, parts and accessories and other aftermarket focused businesses, along with Freedom Boat Club, continued to benefit from healthy boating activity. Brunswick's third quarter boat retail sales were flat year-over-year, a notable relative improvement from the first half of the year driven by resilience in our premium and core categories. We continue to drive forward with financial and operational efficiencies through the announced margin-accretive footprint actions in our boat business, continued enterprise-wide tariff mitigation initiatives, prudent pipeline management and excellent capital strategy execution. Our third quarter sales of $1.4 billion were up 7% versus prior year. Our adjusted earnings per share of $0.97 were impacted by the reinstatement of variable compensation and tariffs, but were up year-over-year, excluding those items, and we had another quarter of outstanding free cash flow generation, providing us with the flexibility to simultaneously invest in our business, return capital to shareholders and strengthen our balance sheet. With $111 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, we have generated $355 million year-to-date, an exceptional $348 million improvement over the first 3 quarters of last year. For the first time since the first quarter of 2022, revenue grew in all our segments. The Propulsion business delivered significant sales growth, with revenues in each of its three businesses: outboard, sterndrive and controls, rigging and propellers, up over prior year as OEM order strength continued later into the boating season. Mercury continues to be the clear U.S. outboard market share leader, with 49.4% share of outboard engines sold in the quarter. Given the volume of Mercury competitor engines shipped into the U.S. in advance of the tariffs on Japanese imports, we have not yet seen the full potential impacts of those tariffs on competitive product pricing, but we continue to be well positioned. Strong boater participation in our core markets continues to benefit our high-margin annuity Engine Parts and Accessories business, which posted strong sales growth over the prior year with sales in both the products and distribution businesses up solidly and segment operating margin also up sequentially from the second quarter, reflecting the strong operating leverage in the business. In the U.S., our market-leading distribution business gained 140 basis points of market share year-to-date over the same period last year. Navico Group reported modest sales growth and steady adjusted operating margin over prior year. Growth was led by strong performance in marine electronics product lines, but continued to benefit from investments in technology and new product introductions. While strong boating participation drove aftermarket sales that represents 60% of Navico revenue. Continued restructuring actions, a leaner, more focused organization and new product investments are bearing fruit. And Navico Group's strategic importance to the Brunswick portfolio was recently reinforced by the introduction of the Simrad AutoCaptain autonomous boating system, developed by Navico Group in collaboration with Mercury Marine and Brunswick Boat Group. Lastly, GAAP operating earnings were impacted by $323 million of noncash intangible asset charges for Navico Group. These impairment charges reflect the impact of the current trade and economic environment despite our plans for continued growth and margin improvement in this important part of our portfolio that is an increasing source of integrated solutions and differentiated innovation. Our Boat business grew both revenue and adjusted operating margin over prior year as our premium brands continue to perform well, and our aluminum boat businesses delivered a very strong quarter. Dealer inventory remains historically low, and coupled with flat retail, allowed for steady wholesale shipments. In September, we announced the strategic rationalization of our fiberglass boat manufacturing footprint, exiting our facilities in Reynosa, Mexico and Flagler Beach, Florida by the middle of 2026 and consolidating production from these facilities into existing U.S. facilities. Moving on to external factors. The U.S. Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points in September, with expectations for several additional cuts through the balance of 2025 and/or in early 2026. Lower interest rates have a compound benefit in reducing the cost of both dealer floor plan financing and consumer retail financing, which will be a tailwind for both wholesale stocking and the 2026 main selling season. Additionally, while we're still analyzing how best to take advantage of the tax provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the cash flow benefits will most likely be realized in 2026. We continue to actively manage our tariff exposure in what is still a dynamic situation and are slightly increasing our estimate to approximately $75 million of net tariff impact for the year, mainly as a result of the expanded scope of Section 232 tariffs. I will again highlight that because of our primarily U.S.-based vertically integrated engine and boat manufacturing base and predominantly domestic supply chain and the fact that we manufacture almost all our boats for international markets within those markets, we remain competitively well positioned in an environment of persistent tariffs. We also stand to potentially benefit from the tariffs of our engine competitors who import their engines from Japan, now subject to a 15% tariff. Dealer sentiment remained stable with historically low and fresh dealer inventory, and boating participation has increased considerably during the third quarter, benefiting our aftermarket businesses and driving Freedom Boat Club trips up 2.5% year-to-date versus prior year. OEM build rates have remained solid, and in combination with lower inventories, have supported strong wholesale engine shipments. Retail incentives remain elevated compared to historic levels, but are lower than in the same period last year. Looking now at industry retail performance, which has steadily improved in recent months after the macroeconomic shocks from early spring. As of the latest SSI reporting for August, U.S. main powerboat industry retail was down a little more than 9% year-to-date, with Brunswick boat brands continuing to outperform the industry and Brunswick's internal retail performing better than SSI. Despite the U.S. outboard engine industry that is down slightly year-to-date, Mercury market share remained stable with a 49.4% share in the third quarter, even in the face of significant competitive promotional activity. Internationally, Mercury drove strong share gains in the majority of its markets. From a global boat retail perspective, our core and premium brands outperformed the market during the quarter, and our value brands performed steadily. Overall, Brunswick's boat retail was down mid-single digits in the first half of this year compared to prior year, while this quarter, overall, we came in flat to prior year, a significant relative improvement. While still down, we saw notable strengthening in our value segment as we took actions to streamline our model lineup and improve profitability through manufacturing consolidation, which we'll discuss on the next slide. Lastly, we continue to drive healthy and very lean dealer inventory pipeline levels. Global pipelines are down over 2,200 units compared to the third quarter of 2024 and down over 1,500 units sequentially from the last quarter. In the U.S., pipelines are down over 1,200 units compared to the third quarter of 2024 and down over 700 units sequentially from the last quarter. While the performance of our fiberglass value brands improved in the third quarter, this has remained our most challenged category. Last quarter, we reported that we streamlined our value fiberglass model lineup by 25% for the 2026 model year, which began in July. And in September, we announced a strategic consolidation of our Reynosa, Mexico and Flagler Beach, Florida facilities into existing U.S. locations. This consolidation will reduce fixed costs, drive improved profitability in our Boat segment and generate a strong return on investment. The transition is expected to be complete in mid-2026, with some inefficiencies during the transition but with anticipated run rate savings of over $10 million a year after completion, even at current volumes, and with the benefits increasing when the industry rebounds and production volumes increase. This quarter, Brunswick has again delivered outstanding free cash flow. With $355 million year-to-date, we have delivered $1.6 billion of free cash flow since 2021 and a record $635 million over the last 12 months in very dynamic and challenging market conditions with a significant contribution from the recurring revenue components of our portfolio, but also with diligent focus on working capital reduction, and we expect this strong performance to continue into the fourth quarter and next year. Our investment-grade balance sheet remains very healthy, with no debt maturities until 2029 and attractive cost of debt and maturity profile and net leverage that continues to improve. We are, therefore, again, increasing our debt reduction guidance for 2025 by $25 million to $200 million for the year, up $75 million since the beginning of the year. By year-end, we are on track to retire approximately $375 million of debt since the beginning of 2023 and are committed to achieving our long-term net leverage target of below 2x EBITDA. We are accomplishing this while maintaining significant financial flexibility. And at quarter end, we have $1.3 billion in liquidity, including full access to our undrawn revolving credit facility. We also anticipate retiring $200 million or more of debt next year while continuing to return capital to shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Ryan to provide additional comments on our financial performance and outlook.

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick's third quarter performance came in ahead of expectations, with sales growth in each of our segments versus the third quarter of 2024. On a consolidated basis, sales were up almost 7%, reflecting strong orders from OEMs and dealers, pricing actions taken in recent periods and steady boating participation, driving P&A and other aftermarket business strength, which was helped by favorable late season weather in many regions. Adjusted operating earnings and EPS also exceeded expectations, but were down versus the prior year due to the enterprise-wide impacts of tariffs and the reinstatement of variable compensation, which were partially offset by the positive earnings generated by the increased sales. Lastly, as Dave highlighted, we continue to drive robust free cash flow, up 166% from the prior year. On a year-to-date basis, sales are down 1%, primarily due to planned lower first half production levels in our Propulsion and Boat businesses, mostly offset by P&A and aftermarket stability throughout the year and third quarter sales growth in all of our businesses. Year-to-date adjusted operating earnings and EPS are also ahead of expectations, but remained below the prior year as expected due to the previously mentioned enterprise factors and lower first half production. Year-to-date free cash flow of $355 million remains a continued strength of the entire enterprise, reflecting the overall steady performance of our higher-margin aftermarket businesses and our focused inventory and other working capital initiatives. As noted, while sales were up 7% this quarter versus the prior year, adjusted EPS was down $0.20. However, outside the impacts of tariffs and the variable compensation reinstatement, we would have shown strong adjusted earnings growth in the quarter. The aggregate third quarter EPS impact of reinstating variable compensation back to target levels and incremental tariffs was approximately $0.70. These costs were partially offset by the earnings benefits from the higher sales and positive absorption, primarily in our Propulsion business, along with lower discounts in our Boat business. Now we'll look at each reporting segment, starting with our Propulsion business, which grew sales by 10% in the quarter, reflecting increases for each of its product categories of outboards, sterndrive and controls, rigging and props. Mercury saw strong OEM orders in a low field inventory environment, together with continued robust market share, resulting in their second straight quarter of strong sales improvement. Operating margin was down compared to prior year due to tariffs and the variable compensation reset, but benefited from improved absorption driven by higher production in the quarter. Healthy boater participation continues to drive strength in our Engine Parts and Accessories segment, with sales up 8% overall compared to the prior year. Sales were up solidly for both products and distribution, benefiting from favorable late season weather in many regions, helping to make up for a slower start earlier in the year, and market share gains in our distribution business. Operating earnings were down slightly compared to the prior year solely due to the enterprise impacts already discussed. I'm delighted to share that the Navico Group sales increased by 2% in the quarter, led by growth in its electronics portfolio, with adjusted operating margins decreasing only slightly as compared to the prior year. As Dave mentioned earlier, GAAP operating earnings were impacted by a $323 million noncash intangible asset impairment charge for the Navico Group. As we have previously discussed, driving improved performance in this segment is a key focus for management and the entire Navico team. And while we still have more work to do, we are starting to see the benefits from these efforts and our investments in new products, as reflected in Navico's consistent sales and earnings performance throughout the year. As compared to the third quarter of last year, gross margins improved significantly as we took out almost $5 million of cost from Navico facilities and continue to execute a multiyear initiative to consolidate and optimize our global network of warehouses and distribution centers. This strategic program is designed to deliver meaningful improvements across customer experience, operational performance and financial outcomes. We also continue to improve the balance sheet with lower inventory and increased turns. Lastly, our Boat segment reported sales growth of 4% over prior year, with growth in both boat sales and the business acceleration portfolio. Our aluminum boat brands, led by our premium fishing brand, Lund, had an especially strong quarter and drove strong top line and earnings performance. And Freedom Boat Club continued its growth journey, contributing approximately 13% of the segment sales. With low dealer pipelines, flat third quarter retail pulled through steady wholesale performance as we ended the quarter with lower pipeline inventories, as Dave discussed earlier. Segment adjusted operating earnings benefited from the increased sales, a lower discount environment and focused cost actions, which resulted in greatly improved segment gross margin, which more than offset the enterprise factors and flowed through into a 65% increase in adjusted operating earnings compared to the prior year. My last slide shows our full year guidance, which remains unchanged for revenue of approximately $5.2 billion, adjusted operating margins of approximately 7% and adjusted EPS of approximately $3.25. We remain comfortable with our full year EPS guidance despite the slightly increased estimated net tariff impact, as we believe we can carry forward our slight third quarter beat and continue to drive sales and earnings growth as we close out the year. Given our exceptional free cash flow generation year-to-date, we are increasing our full year free cash flow estimate to in excess of $425 million and our debt reduction target to $200 million, which will continue to progress our goal of lowering our debt leverage to under 2x. I will now pass the call back to Dave for concluding remarks.

Thanks, Ryan. I always like to highlight some of our exciting product launches, Freedom expansions and awards. During the quarter, we enjoyed strong momentum at the European fall boat shows, which provides positive indicators for next year's retail season and reflect the strong market position of many of our brands. In addition to Mercury's strong showing at the Cannes and Genoa Boat Shows, two of our most recently launched boats earned notable awards, with the Bayliner C21 named the 2025 MoteurBoat of the Year in the very competitive under 7 meters category and the Sea Ray SDX270 Surf collecting the MoteurBoat Magazine Innovation Award. These two prestigious new accolades add to many previous product awards this year. Amongst the many new boat models introduced this year, during the quarter, Lund introduced its all-new Explorer model lineup, which combines Lund's legendary fishability with smart functional features. Powered by Mercury and equipped with Lowrance technology, the Explorer lineup is another embodiment of the power of Brunswick synergies. Lund continues to be the leader in the premium aluminum fishing market. Navico Group's integrated and connected solutions continue to drive OEM penetration, and the team worked with several large OEMs to introduce a full turnkey cloud and mobile app solution designed to enhance the boating experience. This end-to-end platform unlocks powerful information for OEMs and their dealers by using real-time telematic data to gather valuable insights to serve their customers. In addition, Lowrance launched the all-new Ghost X Trolling Motor in September as the next evolution in the Ghost lineup. Ghost X delivers 20% more thrust with ultra-quiet operations, GPS anchoring and seamless sonar integration. FLITE debuted the FLITELab brand, which leverages the same innovative FLITE product design and technology to provide foilers with unmatched versatility to customize their ride. And finally, Freedom Boat Club recently reached 440 global locations and announced a new franchise location in Christchurch, New

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

So I don't have to tell you guys that sort of over the course of the quarter, a big topic of debate was sort of how you're thinking about retail and what's showing up in the SSI numbers. I don't really care to go down that rabbit hole, I feel like we've been there before. But maybe if you could give us an indication of where you think we are now in sort of a -- from a run rate perspective, most notably as we think about how you're thinking about 2026? If the expectation is that 2026 is going to be flat to up, where are we today relative to that? And how do you see sort of the building blocks to us getting to that positive inflection?

James, yes, thank you for the question. Yes. We obviously had the kind of shocks in early Q2. The tariff announcements and the subsequent kind of capital market impacts that have progressively stabilized, that significantly affected early Q2, particularly. And then towards the end of Q2, we began to see some recovery and stabilization. Through this whole process, as we've noted, the kind of premium and core parts of our product lines have performed better than the value parts of our product lines. And that continues to be the case. In Q3, we're essentially flat year-over-year, with premium and core still outperforming and value catching up a bit, but still underperforming. We're obviously now in a part of the season where we're talking about hundreds of units and not multiple thousands of units, but that strength has continued through the first couple of weeks of October was slightly up through the first couple of weeks of October. So I think last year -- at the end of last year, we were commenting that we thought the shape of the year would be slightly weaker in the first half, strengthening in the back half. We did not know about tariffs at that time, but that has turned out to be the shape of the year. And with interest rates improving and impacting positively both end consumers and our dealers and obviously, their willingness to take stock, we don't see any reason why that can't -- that momentum can't continue into next season. So that's really the background. Obviously, if there are currently a noble exogenous issues, that may change. But just based on a feeling that we're kind of a bit of an inflection point at the moment in a positive way and that we do have a retail momentum, we're feeling that next season should be at least flat and most likely, at least slightly up.

Got it. But just to clarify, as we think about sort of flattish for 3Q, that you guys, it seems like the more relevant number might be the industry. Do you think the industry is flattening out for 3Q? And then, I think just a quick follow-up. Yes, I'm sorry, go ahead.

Yes, I think is the answer. SSI -- you appropriately like -- I think probably, we always have this process of reconciliation with SSI. SSI typically comes up. It typically underreports the Upper Midwest states early on, where we have strength typically because of brands like our Lund brand, which is very strong in the Upper Midwest. . So there is a process of just reconciliation because of partial reporting. I do get a sense though, since we have a broad range of brands that participate in pretty much every sector, that we should be -- our performance is probably representative of a generally improving market.

And I would say, in some of our premium areas, including Lund, James, we are probably taking a little share as well. So you may see at the end of the year where the industry -- we may outperform the industry by a point or 2 in certain places where our share continues to be good for us.

Got it. And then just the inventory question. It seems like you guys are encouraged with where you are. How do we think about sort of the wholesale to retail ratio into 2026? A lot of other industry participants not only talking about maybe weaker trends, retail trends than what we're hearing today, but elevated retail level. How do you think about that heading into next year?

Yes, James, I mean, we have the benefit of having our joint venture with Wells Fargo, our BAC venture. And we get to see a lot of good inventory debt, and we're seeing pretty much what we're reporting, which is people being thoughtful about inventory levels not increasing. And certainly, as Brunswick inventory is about as low as it's been in any non-COVID year since the GFC. So we're going to end the year somewhere about 18,000 global units and probably below 12,000 in the U.S. And again, that is when you look at kind of on a per rooftop basis, that is about as low as we want to be to make sure we have representative samples of our products in the places we need to sell retail. So we're really comfortable with our own inventory. And frankly, I'm not seeing any heavy pockets outside of ours either.

Yes. Inventory freshness continues to be really good. More than 80% of our inventory is less than a year old, which is a very fresh and healthy level. And just on the outboard engine side, we are -- we have been undershipping retail for a long time now and feel like our outboard pipelines are in an extremely good shape.

Our next question is from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird.

I just wanted to unpack the impact of U.S. tariffs on your competitors in Japan, especially on your engine franchise, of course. Have those competitors attempted to offset those tariffs with price increases? And have you heard from any boat OEMs that are interested in sourcing engines domestically?

Yes. I think yes to both. Yes, we are beginning to hear about some price increases, but we hear these things secondhand at the moment. So I think that's the developing situation. We'll probably hear more. If anybody intends to implement pricing at the beginning of next year, any of our competitors, then we'll likely hear about it in some way over the next few weeks or certainly, a month. I think probably with the challenge to the IEEPA tariffs in -- at the Supreme Court at the moment, there may be some of our competitors kind of wait to see what happens with that, I'm not really sure, before implementing pricing. But yes, we continue to gain share and convert OEMs, in fact. Probably in the last 6 months, we converted to European OEMs. So yes, I think Mercury continues to have very strong momentum. I would say that the Mercury product pipeline is continuing to churn, and there are going to be some really exciting new and very differentiated products coming up from Mercury over the next couple of years, which will only drive forward that momentum. We really are moving very quickly, all Mercury product development, just as we have in the past. I do think as well -- and maybe we'll talk about things like AutoCaptain later though. But that features set, which is genuinely innovative and adds a lot of value, is only available with Mercury propulsion. So we have not just on the propulsion side, but also on the integrated systems side, there are a lot of reasons to suggest that we should be converting more OEMs over time.

And Ryan, you mentioned cash flow and other benefits from the new tax policy. I'm just wondering if you can help us frame or quantify some of those key drivers a little better?

Yes. I mean, Craig, we have a lot of optionality under the new bill, obviously, in terms of bonus depreciation and some other things. And it's a bit of a P&L versus cash flow analysis that you have to take a look at as to when you take some of the goodness. I think for the end of the year, obviously, you've seen our free cash flow guidance. This year, it's extremely strong. It's guiding to the top, what, 2 or 3 years ever in Brunswick's history at 450 plus. Next year, you saw -- you've seen in our deck, that 125% free cash flow conversion would imply that we're getting some of that goodness next year, but we also have some headwinds that go along with that. So we'll see how we get there. I think we're not making any distinct decisions right now on how we're going to attack some of the benefits in the bill. A bit of it will depend on how we finish the year and the cash needs early in 2026. But it's clear that our ability to generate cash and to generate working capital has become a strength that really differentiates us really from any other company in our space.

Our next question is from the line of Anna Glaessgen with B. Riley.

I'd like to turn to Navico, shifting gears a little bit. Nice to see the top line inflection during the quarter. Understand operating earnings were impacted by tariffs and the variable comp. But could you confirm that excluding those items, you would have seen margin expansion? And if so, should we start to see more expansion as we roll over those or as we lap those headwinds towards mid next year?

Yes. Yes, I can confirm that absent solely tariffs and variable comp reset, the Navico margins would have been up in the quarter.

Got it.

Yes. And on the...

Go ahead.

I just want to say that -- you go on.

I was going to skip to the next question. So if you want to stay on this topic, please.

Yes. I just -- I wanted to say that we don't talk very much in these calls about technology. But over the last 3 years, we've invested a lot. But if you look at the Navico, I mean, we had the strongest gross margins in our business in the low 30s gross margin across the portfolio, but we're spending a lot on new product development. We just introduced AutoCaptain, which took us 3.5 years to develop. We introduced Fathom recently, we introduced a new connected platform that I just discussed. None of our competitors have anything like that out there at the moment. So our path here is to basically do what we did with Mercury, which is to invest in differentiated innovation in a way that other people can't follow or match. And it does take investment upfront, but we will begin to see the benefits of that as we move forward. So I just wanted to add that context.

Got it. Thanks, Dave. Turning to both units, maybe asking the question in a different way. We've seen pretty notable outperformance year-to-date, industry running down high single digits. You guys are putting up a flat 3Q. Maybe expand upon the degree to which that outperformance is being driven by market share gains? And how we should expect you guys versus the market in 2026 and what's embedded in that guidance?

Sure. I'll take this, Anna. Yes, I think there's some share in there. I do think that, as Dave mentioned earlier, as the end of the year comes, you'll see SSI probably get closer to where we think the end of the year will be, which is kind of down mid-single digits, but with us probably outperforming a bit in premium and in core. As we look to next year, I don't know if we believe any of those trends are changing. Our pipelines in all 3 of our segments are down. So premium, core and value pipelines are all down year-over-year as we enter 2026 with good, fresh inventory ready for the winter boat show season. I do think you could see some goodness on the value side, should we get a little interest rate help here in November, October 29, December and February. So we have an opportunity for 3 rate reductions here really before the key part of the season. That could help value, but our premium customer continues to be very strong. And I think certainly looking forward to Fort Lauderdale Boat Show next week, where we anticipate a really nice show where our premium buyer should be out and looking to get a boat for the end of the year.

The next question is from the line of Xian Siew with BNP Paribas.

When you think about next year, I was wondering if you could expand a bit more about Propulsion. I think you kind of mentioned it like lapping, a bit of a destocking. So I'm just kind of curious how much do you think that could be a benefit? And how do we think about market share growth for Mercury over the next year?

Yes. I think a steady trajectory on market share growth. I think we are just seeing really -- we introduced the new 350 and 425-horsepower engines only in July, August, I think, something like that. So if you think about that, usually, people incorporate those things in -- at a model year changeover. So we would expect the -- some tailwinds from those new products coming through into next year and continued steady gains. We talked quite a bit, obviously, about U.S. market share, which is -- in the quarter, was very close to 50%. But the reality is the momentum for Mercury continues in pretty much all its markets. We've had a really strong year in Asia, a strong year in South America, a strong year in Europe. So we would continue to think about Mercury on a global basis, increasing share.

And maybe, Xian, let me just order of magnitude, some of these pipeline numbers for engines. And these are U.S. numbers, which is where we have the best information. But versus the first day of 2024, so a 2-year stack. By the end of this year, under 175-horsepower pipeline is going to be down about 25%. And if you go same time period over 175 horsepower, our pipeline is going to be down 33% since January 1, 2024. So we've put ourselves in a really nice position with our dealers and our OEMs to capture the upside on growth to the market rebound like we believe it will.

Yes. That's super helpful. And maybe just on the 4Q guidance, I think it seems to imply there's a big -- a nice recovery on margins for both boats. At the same time, I think the revenue imply too much, maybe mid-single-digit growth. So I'm just trying to understand, I guess, how are you thinking about boat margins and the evolution in 4Q then maybe beyond?

Yes. I think a bit of Q3, remember, is always saddled with some of the summer shutdowns and fewer production days. And so that often means Q3 is kind of the lowest margin quarter of the year. They're going to be producing kind of at a normal rate here in the fourth quarter. And if you remember, versus Q4 of last year, where they were really taking production days out to ensure a pipeline didn't inflate before the year, this year, they're simply just at a more steady state. So those are the two main drivers.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

It's Amanda Douglas on for Matt. So Dave, following the actions that you've taken to streamline the value boat segment, do you see the model lineup into 2026 as rightsized today? Or are there any further changes required ahead? And how would you assess dealer inventory levels across value and premium segments as we look ahead to the 2026 season?

Thank you for the question. Yes, I think the focus on value and kind of scaling back of the model lineup, I think we'll obviously evaluate through the balance of this season and early next season to see if we should take any additional actions. I think we still have a very comprehensive portfolio. But given volumes in that segment, we had too much complexity, and we need to take that down. I think we'll be very dynamic about it. I don't foresee a substantial additional change. At the moment, we've introduced new products, including the award-winning C21 from Bayliner this year, which is going to help us a lot, helps us focus our product development efforts to make sure that the model lineup that we do have is fresh. But of course, we could trim and make adjustments as we go forward. I don't see the same level of rationalization that I saw for this model year, though. And then in terms of inventory levels, I think we're healthy everywhere. Typically, our premium inventory levels in terms of weeks on hand are lower than kind of value. Typically, our premium inventory levels in terms of weeks on hand will be in the typically, mid-20s somewhere, and that's exactly where we are right now. So I really feel like our inventories are rightsized across all of our segments. And I believe that we're extremely well positioned for 2026.

Our next question is from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

I just wanted to go back to Navico. I think in the prepared remarks, it was noted that there was more work to do. And you guys have done a ton of work already. So maybe, can you elaborate if there's been maybe some new issues found that need to be remedied? And then what does the road map look like to a steady state in that segment?

No, thank you for the question. Yes, there are no new issues. There's just always more work to do, and we try to make sure that we prioritize our actions and make sure that we do the biggest, most impactful things as far as we can first, but there's a continued march forward in all aspects of the business. We do think about the fact that -- Navico Group is not just Navico. Navico that we acquired in 2021 was about half the business and still is about half the business. It really is the product of a lot of acquisitions over time. And so we're continuing to make sure that operationally, those previous acquisitions are all now working together on the same IT platforms, for example, making sure that we don't have excess distribution, we consolidate distribution. But we have the same systems that we can manage our SIOP processes. So yes, this is really a multiyear effort to kind of wring the last bit of operational efficiency out of the business. And we've done a lot of work, but we have more to go. There's still a good road map there of work that will help our operating margins, help revenue growth, and to be honest, free up some more cash because I think there are more turns in that business than we have right now, inventory turns in that business than we have right now. So the road map includes all of those things, and it's very detailed. Aine Denari, who runs that business now, is a very detailed and strong operator who is working extremely systematically through all of the aspects of the business, all of the processes, all of the systems and making sure that we continue to progress forward. So a lot of heavy lifting done, particularly on the product development side. It just takes a while to get that flywheel turning, but now, it really is turning with a lot of differentiated product. We have rationalized quite a few facilities. Even, I think, earlier this year, we moved European distribution to a 3PL. Those kind of actions individually might not move the needle, but collectively, can be multiple points of operating margin expansion. So yes, we're not in any way complacent on Navico now. It's great to see the business stabilized, but there is such a lot of potential in that business. We are anxious to make sure we move even further forward.

The next question is from the line of Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

Just wanted to get some more clarification on 2026 and the initial outlook here. So obviously, as you mentioned, you guys have been undershipping demand significantly on the engine side and I think a little bit on the boat side as well. But as we think about the mid- to high single-digit potential revenue growth for next year, how much of that is simply lapping that destock, if you will? And how much of that is actually potentially coming from a restock?

Joe, I'll take -- I'll go ahead and take this one. Yes, maybe there's a little bit in the first part of the year that is lapping a bit of a slower Q1, maybe half of Q2. But really, it's going to be a combination of a little bit of market, not much relying on the market, maybe a point or 2, some pricing throughout the various business units. Some share gains which continue, not only at Mercury, but in the Boat business and as Navico Group takes back share in some of their product lines. And also probably a bit of a betterment in discounting, right? The discounting environment, we've already seen come down here in the back half of the year, and we intend it's likely that, that will continue. With P&A obviously being a very stable part of the business that continues to trolley along. So you can get yourself, depending on what you assume there, from mid- to high pretty easily. But I would say the lapping of destocking is probably a small part and really just a kind of first quarter, maybe first 4, 5 months phenomenon.

Our next question comes from the line of David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

This is Joe Nolan on for David. You talked about the plant consolidation and efficiencies during the transition. Just wondering if you could talk about the fourth quarter impact and maybe give us a sense of what the net impact might be for 2026 from that?

Yes. So fourth quarter, we're probably talking about a couple of million?

That's right.

Yes, just checking with Ryan here to make sure I give you a couple of million. Essentially, we'll be operating 4 facilities and at least 2 at lower efficiency and productivity as we begin to exit them and we move towards fully consolidated by hopefully, a little bit earlier than the middle of 2026. So by the time we get the transition completed, we'll begin to see that kind of annualized run rate saving of $10 million-ish plus. So overall, I would say through next year, we'll see net positive, but it won't be the full $10 million of run rate savings. There are some elements of this transition that we can take ex items and some like just running at lower efficiency that we can and a little bit of a drag in the short term. But the price in the long term is well worth it. That $10 million or so run rate is just that current production rates. The benefit increases substantially as we move to higher production volumes. So we're anxious to get it done as fast as we can. We're very appreciative of the work of all the people who are transitioning and those who are working to help us with the transition. And yes, we'll be a much leaner production organization when we finish with a lot of benefits to the entire Boat Group.

Our next question is from the line of Tristan Thomas with BMO Capital Markets.

I just wanted to look maybe a little bit past next year, just maybe get an update on how you guys are thinking about normalized boat industry retail demand and kind of how long and what's needed to get us there?

Normalized industry, we had -- when we think about the kind of normalized in a number of different ways, I would say -- we had a year this year that was heavily disrupted by the second quarter, which is unexpected, as -- prior to those announcements. I think otherwise, we would probably have had a year that was probably flattish. I'm not really sure. Q1 was a drag. I would say that elevated interest rates are -- have been a headwind in the past several years versus where we were before COVID when retail loan rates are in the 4% to 5%-ish, and we're currently in the 7.5% to 8% range. So that is a headwind that has been present for the last couple of years. And then we frequently also referred to replacement rates in our -- if you look at the boat park or the number of registered boats out there that are relevant to the product lines that we produce, it's in the kind of $7 million range. And if you look at a typical boat life, it implies annual replacements in the 200,000 to 250,000 range, which is obviously well above the 130 to 135 we're at the moment. So I would say a number of factors suggest that we will -- that there should be macro factors that increase both sales over time, and that's what we're anticipating. But we're obviously hesitant to take all of those things into our near-term forecast. So we think flat to slightly up is a prudent forecast at this point in time for next year.

Our final question today is from the line of Noah

Maybe on the tariff front, I think the expectation ticked up a little bit to $75 million for this year. So just maybe any updates on how mitigation is going? And then any early thoughts on the expected impact embedded in kind of the initial thoughts around '26 would be helpful.

Sure. Noah, thanks. Good question. Yes, listen, the real change from our July call to today was the 232 impact on aluminum and steel, really 3 parts. The rate went from 25% to 50%. The list of applicable ACS codes expanded significantly, which really now involves us looking at any metal contact that's contained in parts or goods that are coming in. And I think most people know it was applied retroactively, meaning it applied to inventory sitting in free trade zones or other bonded warehouses, if you would. So that was really the only change from the guidance. And in fact, I would say our mitigation efforts are -- continued to outpace our expectations. We continue to do better than we thought kind of month in and month out. And so that is good and that gives us good visibility into next year. It's a bit hard to say exactly what the impact is next year. I do think the incremental over this year would be much smaller than the incremental from '24 to '25. And certainly, as we continue to get smarter on mitigation techniques, we'll continue to work that number down. So yes, we're actually pretty happy that we're able to hold EPS for the year. Obviously, it's an extra about $10 million of tariff impact that we didn't anticipate that we're going to go ahead and cover -- that we believe we can cover in the quarter. And we look forward to then moving over to '26.

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Dave for some concluding remarks.

Yes. Thanks for your questions, everyone. Great questions. I think in a lot of ways, this is a very encouraging quarter. We have improving retail, revenue up across all our businesses, very solid earnings and continued exceptional free cash flow generation. We do -- as a team, we -- I think this just seemed like a bit of an inflection point. There's definitely more -- a positive shift in momentum at the moment. We continue to take bold structural cost reduction actions, though, and continue to do that, which will benefit our earnings in '26, independent of the market. Our major brands and businesses are beating the market. We continue to invest a lot in very well received and award-winning new products across the portfolio. AutoCaptain was a notable highlight though, really the first fully integrated autonomous boating system in the marketplace, a real differentiator, along with a number of other platforms that we've recently launched in a way that I think only Brunswick can produce. So it's very exciting. So as we said, while many things about 2026 are normal, I think late 2025, retail trends, very lean pipelines, further interest rate cuts all suggest the opportunity for top line growth and through our strong operating leverage, meaningful margin and EPS free expansion. All right. Thank you, everyone, very much. Have a great day.