BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
$4.83
-9.6%BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -5.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -5.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -9.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -48.0%, ROIC -10.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.3%, ROE -48.0%, ROIC -10.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +31.6%, momentum -9.6%, net margin -2.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BBAI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 6.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 6.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 6.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 6.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $827K worth of BBAI shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
122.0K
492.54K
-493K
-$493K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
42.7K
270.60K
-271K
-$271K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
12.0K
64.09K
-64K
-$64K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Braden Pamela Joyce
Director
$320K
Hayes Dorothy D
Director
$263K
Ricker Sean Raymond
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$185K
Blankenship Carolyn
Officer: General Counsel And Secretary
$38K
Mcaleenan Kevin
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$20K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $827K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
BBAI has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
bbai Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BBAI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.