$77.02
+0.98%American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services. The company purchases, produces, distributes, and sells water, as well as distributes electricity. As of December 31, 2021, American States Water Company provided water service to 262,770 customers located throughout 10 counties in the State of California; and distributed electricity to 24,656 customers in San Bernardino County mountain communities in California. The company also provides water and/or wastewater services, including the operation, maintenance, and construction of facilities at the water and/or wastewater systems at various military installations. American States Water Company was incorporated in 1929 and is based in San Dimas, California.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $410.4M | $733.3M | $1.3B | $2.3B | $4.2B | $7.5B | $13.3B | $23.8B | $42.6B | $76.1B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$84.6M | -$151.2M | -$270.1M | -$482.5M | -$862.1M | -$1.5B | -$2.8B | -$4.9B | -$8.8B | -$15.7B |
| Owner Earnings | $325.8M | $582.1M | $1.0B | $1.9B | $3.3B | $5.9B | $10.6B | $18.9B | $33.8B | $60.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $301.7M | $499.0M | $825.5M | $1.4B | $2.3B | $3.7B | $6.2B | $10.2B | $16.9B | $28.0B |
Snapshot
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Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.