Avista Corporation
$41.61
+1.3%Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. This segment also engages in the wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The AEL&P segment offers electric services to 17,400 customers in the city and borough of Juneau, Alaska. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, and wind facilities. As of February 23, 2022, it provided electric service to 406,000 customers and natural gas to 372,000 customers. In addition, the company engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 17.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 17.5, earnings yield +5.7%, momentum +1.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +7.1%, ROIC +3.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +9.8%, ROE +7.1%, ROIC +3.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.7%, momentum +1.3%, net margin +9.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Avista Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Avista Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Avista Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Avista Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Avista Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Avista Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AVA stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 40.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 39.00 to a high of 42.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 40.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 39.00 to a high of 42.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Avista Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $131K and sold $608K worth of AVA shares, resulting in $477K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
2.1K
87.36K
-87K
-$87K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
11.0K
426.06K
-426K
-$426K
6-9 Months
3.7K
130.50K
127
5.19K
+125K
+$125K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
2.4K
88.92K
-89K
-$89K
Top Buyers
Cox Bryan Alden
Officer: Senior Vice President
$131K
Top Sellers
Widmann Janet D.
Director
$286K
Manuel Wayne O
Officer: Senior Vice President
$134K
Cox Bryan Alden
Officer: Senior Vice President
$71K
Meyer David J
Officer: Vice President
$50K
Kinney Scott J
Officer: Vice President
$39K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $477K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
ava Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AVA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.