Atmos Energy Corporation
$167.97
-0.20%Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately three million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers. As of September 30, 2021, it owned 71,921 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage reservoirs in Texas; and provides ancillary services to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales. As of September 30, 2021, it owned 5,699 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 22.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 22.3, earnings yield +4.5%, momentum -0.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.8%, ROIC +4.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +25.5%, ROE +8.8%, ROIC +4.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +53.1%, momentum -0.2%, net margin +25.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Atmos Energy Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Atmos Energy Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Atmos Energy Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Atmos Energy Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Atmos Energy Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Conservative with tight liquidity: Low debt is positive, but current ratio warrants attention. Consider whether the company is efficiently deploying its equity capital.
Atmos Energy Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ATO stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 179.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 167.00 to a high of 187.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 179.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 167.00 to a high of 187.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Atmos Energy Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $77K worth of ATO shares, with no buying activity reported.
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
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9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Donohue Sean
Director
$77K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $77K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
ato Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ATO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.