Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy Corporation

ATOยทNYSE

$167.97

-0.20%
UtilitiesRegulated Gas

Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately three million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers. As of September 30, 2021, it owned 71,921 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage reservoirs in Texas; and provides ancillary services to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales. As of September 30, 2021, it owned 5,699 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$28.04B
EPS7.5400
P/E Ratio22.28
Earnings Date08/05/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 22.3).

Valuation inputs: P/E 22.3, earnings yield +4.5%, momentum -0.2%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +8.8%, ROIC +4.6%).

Profitability stack: net margin +25.5%, ROE +8.8%, ROIC +4.6%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +53.1%, momentum -0.2%, net margin +25.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Atmos Energy Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory

ATO ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy Corporation Fair Value Envelope

ATO ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that ATO has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $167.97, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Atmos Energy Corporation.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $167.97
3Y+34.0%
5Y+54.0%
10Y+123.0%
3Y+12.0%
5Y+67.0%
10Y+92.0%
3Y+55.0%
5Y+99.0%
10Y+242.0%
3Y+110.0%
5Y+97.0%
10Y+158.0%
3Y+3.0%
5Y+68.0%
10Y+418.0%
3Y+30.0%
5Y+88.0%
10Y+189.0%
Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy Corporation Profit Bridge

ATO ยท NYSE
Revenue4.70B
Cost of Goods Sold (2.24B)
Gross Profit2.46B
Operating Expenses (902.94M)
Operating Income1.56B
Interest Expense (171.68M)
Other Income/Expense-81.94M
Pretax Income1.48B
Income Tax (279.28M)
Net Income1.20B
Net Income
1.20B

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

52.4%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

33.2%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

25.5%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

18.9%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

52.37%
Gross Profit Margin
-10%
3Y+22.0%
5Y-4.0%
10Y+10.0%
33.17%
Operating Profit Margin
2%
3Y+51.0%
5Y+14.0%
10Y+24.0%
25.49%
Net Profit Margin
2%
3Y+38.0%
5Y+20.0%
10Y+79.0%
8.84%
Return on Equity
3%
3Y+8.0%
5Y-
10Y-13.0%
4.15%
Return on Assets
3Y+19.0%
5Y+6.0%
10Y+19.0%
4.58%
Return on Invested Capital
-4%
3Y+15.0%
5Y+1.0%
10Y+2.0%
ATO

Atmos Energy Corporation Cash Conversion Engine

ATO ยท NYSE
Net Income1.20B
Depreciation & Amortization734.75M
Stock-Based Compensation12.73M
Change in Working Capital-86.00M
Others-79.38M
Capital Expenditures-3.56B
Free Cash Flow-1.51B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-126.1%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

CapEx Intensity

173.8%

Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.

FCF Growth Trend

-25.6%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$86.00M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.

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Atmos Energy Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile

ATO ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents127.11M
Net Receivables644.63M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets490.28M
Total Current Assets1 B
Property, Plant & Equipment31.19B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets801.69M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets0.00
Total Non-Current Assets31 B
Total Assets
33.25B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.00x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.15x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

4 M

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

4% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Conservative with tight liquidity: Low debt is positive, but current ratio warrants attention. Consider whether the company is efficiently deploying its equity capital.

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Atmos Energy Corporation Street Expectations Map

ATO ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that ATO stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 179.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 167.00 to a high of 187.00.

Lowest Target
167.00
-0.58%
Consensus Target
179.00
6.57%
Highest Target
187.00
11.33%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 179.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 167.00 to a high of 187.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+6.6%

Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.

Analyst Agreement

11.2% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Risk-Reward Profile

19.62x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Atmos Energy Corporation Insider Positioning

ATO ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $77K worth of ATO shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

450

77.02K

Net Activity

-77K

-$77K

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
DS

Donohue Sean

Director

450 sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$77K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $77K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Insider Participation

High Selling

1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

0.53%
Dividend Yield
-9%
3Y-19.0%
5Y-15.0%
10Y+3.0%
ย 

ato Dividend History

ATO
10Y CAGR +9%
Latest $1
Annual $4.74
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%