Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
$5.90
-5.1%Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -1.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E -1.2, earnings yield N/A, momentum -5.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -1.7%, ROIC -13.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.4%, ROE -1.7%, ROIC -13.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +42.1%, momentum -5.1%, net margin -1.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ASPN stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.88, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 5.75.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.88, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 5.75.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $106K and sold $322K worth of ASPN shares, resulting in $216K of net selling activity.
3 Months
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0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
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6-9 Months
14.6K
106.31K
67.4K
264.39K
-158K
-$158K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
8.0K
57.77K
-58K
-$58K
Top Buyers
Thoele Grant Douglas
Officer: Cfo & Treasurer
$106K
Top Sellers
Young Donald R
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$184K
Thoele Grant Douglas
Officer: Cfo & Treasurer
$70K
Daniel Santhosh P
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$58K
Pittman Stephanie
Officer: Chief Human Resources Officer
$10K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $216K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
ASPN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
aspn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ASPN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.