Accelerant Holdings
$14.61
-1.9%Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operate a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners. Its Risk capital partners write premiums directly through the Risk Exchange pay us a fixed-percentage, volume-based fee for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The MGA Operations segment includes the fees earned by members, predominantly for originating and underwriting a portfolio of insurance policies, reduced by the expenses associated with providing services. The Underwriting segment is involved in underwriting insurance policies and assumption of reinsurance policies issued or accepted by consolidated insurance companies. Its Underwriting segment is a strategic asset that enables access to portfolio for current and prospective risk capital partners. The activities of insurance companies include property and casualty insurance, policy issuance, and reinsurance arrangements. The company focuses on small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -1.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -1.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -1.9%, ROIC -1.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.5%, ROE -1.9%, ROIC -1.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +91.2%, momentum -1.9%, net margin -1.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Accelerant Holdings Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Accelerant Holdings Fair Value Envelope
Accelerant Holdings Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Accelerant Holdings Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Accelerant Holdings Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Accelerant Holdings Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.80, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 20.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.80, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 20.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Accelerant Holdings Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.90M and sold $7.49M worth of ARX shares, resulting in $5.59M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
50.0K
638.28K
-638K
-$638K
3-6 Months
542
7.95K
0
0.00
+8K
+$8K
6-9 Months
140.0K
1.88M
0
0.00
+1.9M
+$1.88M
9-12 Months
500
10.50K
326.3K
6.85M
-6.8M
-$6.84M
Top Buyers
Radke Jeffrey L
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Co-Founder, Ceo
$999K
Oneill Francis James
Officer: Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer
$507K
Lee-Smith Christopher
Director, Officer: Co-Founder, Head Of Distrib.
$197K
Gaynor Samuel
Director
$101K
Sternberg Matthew David
Officer: Coo, Risk Exchange
$75K
Top Sellers
Schwartz Keoni Andrew
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$6.85M
Green Jay Michael
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$638K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $5.59M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
No Dividend Yield Data
ARX has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
arx Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ARX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.