Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc.
$7.98
-1.7%Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc., a real estate finance company, focuses on acquiring and investing in first lien non- qualified mortgage loans and other mortgage-related assets in the United States mortgage market. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 4.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 4.3, earnings yield +23.3%, momentum -1.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +16.5%, ROIC +5.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +33.1%, ROE +16.5%, ROIC +5.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +90.3%, momentum -1.7%, net margin +33.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AOMR stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.42, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.75 to a high of 13.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.42, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.75 to a high of 13.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $155K and sold $10.08M worth of AOMR shares, resulting in $9.92M of net selling activity.
3 Months
10.0K
81.50K
481.5K
3.79M
-3.7M
-$3.71M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
3.4K
28.62K
50.0K
489.11K
-460K
-$460K
9-12 Months
5.0K
45.17K
595.0K
5.80M
-5.8M
-$5.76M
Top Buyers
Minami W D
Director
$110K
Morgan Jonathan
Director
$45K
Top Sellers
Davidson Kempner Capital Management Lp
10 Percent Owner, Other: See Remarks
$9.59M
Filson Brandon
Officer: Cfo & Treasurer
$489K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $9.92M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers and 2 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
aomr Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AOMR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.