$32.58
+1.5%American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: AMH) is a leader in the single-family home rental industry and American Homes 4 Rent is fast becoming a nationally recognized brand for rental homes, known for high-quality, good value and tenant satisfaction. We are an internally managed Maryland real estate investment trust, or REIT, focused on acquiring, developing, renovating, leasing, and operating attractive, single-family homes as rental properties. As of September 30, 2020, we owned 53,229 single-family properties in selected submarkets in 22 states.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $934.9M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$25.6M | -$27.7M | -$29.9M | -$32.4M | -$35.0M | -$37.9M | -$41.0M | -$44.3M | -$47.9M | -$51.8M |
| Owner Earnings | $909.3M | $983.6M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $842.0M | $843.3M | $844.6M | $845.9M | $847.2M | $848.5M | $849.8M | $851.1M | $852.4M | $853.7M |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.