Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

ALSNยทNYSE

$119.05

+1.4%
Consumer CyclicalAuto - Parts

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells commercial and defense fully-automatic transmissions for medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium-and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles worldwide. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company markets its transmissions under the Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under the ReTran brand name. It also sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its transmissions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government. The company serves customers through an independent network of approximately 1,400 independent distributor and dealer locations. The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$9.87B
EPS7.4200
P/E Ratio16.04
Earnings Date08/03/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 16.0).

Valuation inputs: P/E 16.0, earnings yield +6.2%, momentum +1.4%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +33.4%, ROIC +13.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin +20.7%, ROE +33.4%, ROIC +13.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +69.3%, momentum +1.4%, net margin +20.7%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

ALSN ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

ALSN ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that ALSN has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $119.05, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $119.05
3Y+34.0%
5Y+183.0%
10Y+480.0%
3Y+9.0%
5Y+45.0%
10Y+64.0%
3Y+17.0%
5Y+108.0%
10Y+190.0%
3Y+25.0%
5Y+47.0%
10Y+39.0%
3Y+32.0%
5Y+46.0%
10Y+25.0%
3Y+30.0%
5Y+36.0%
10Y+44.0%
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge

ALSN ยท NYSE
Revenue3.01B
Cost of Goods Sold (1.55B)
Gross Profit1.46B
Operating Expenses (483.00M)
Operating Income973.00M
Interest Expense (98.00M)
Other Income/Expense-169.00M
Pretax Income804.00M
Income Tax (181.00M)
Net Income623.00M
Net Income
623.00M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

48.4%

Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.

Operating Margin

32.3%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

20.7%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

22.5%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

48.37%
Gross Profit Margin
2%
3Y+3.0%
5Y+1.0%
10Y+3.0%
32.33%
Operating Profit Margin
5%
3Y+14.0%
5Y+26.0%
10Y+32.0%
20.70%
Net Profit Margin
-9%
3Y+8.0%
5Y+44.0%
10Y+77.0%
33.37%
Return on Equity
-25%
3Y-45.0%
5Y-16.0%
10Y+68.0%
10.24%
Return on Assets
-25%
3Y-10.0%
5Y+53.0%
10Y+101.0%
13.39%
Return on Invested Capital
-20%
3Y-13.0%
5Y+36.0%
10Y+79.0%
ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

ALSN ยท NYSE
Net Income623.00M
Depreciation & Amortization124.00M
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-27.00M
Others40.00M
Capital Expenditures-175.00M
Free Cash Flow649.00M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

104.2%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

21.2%

Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.

FCF Growth Trend

-1.4%

Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expandingโ€”monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.

Working Capital Impact

-$27.00M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

ALSN ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents311.00M
Net Receivables892.00M
Inventory835.00M
Other Current Assets264.00M
Total Current Assets2 B
Property, Plant & Equipment1.67B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets4.51B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets268.00M
Total Non-Current Assets2 B
Total Assets
8.75B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.85x

Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

3.60x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

1 B

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

26% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map

ALSN ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that ALSN stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 118.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 98.00 to a high of 135.00.

Lowest Target
98.00
-17.68%
Consensus Target
118.50
-0.46%
Highest Target
135.00
13.40%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 118.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 98.00 to a high of 135.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

-0.5%

Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.

Analyst Agreement

31.2% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Risk-Reward Profile

0.76x

Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.

Analyst Conviction

Moderate

Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning

ALSN ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $534K and sold $945K worth of ALSN shares, resulting in $411K of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

2.6K

317.33K

Net Activity

-317K

-$317K

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

2.9K

307.12K

Net Activity

-307K

-$307K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

1.8K

150.76K

Net Activity

-151K

-$151K

9-12 Months

Bought

6.0K

534.00K

Sold

1.8K

169.31K

Net Activity

+365K

+$365K

Top Buyers

1
BGF

Bohley G Frederick

Officer: Chief Operating Officer

6.0K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$534K

Top Sellers

1
CJ

Coll John

Officer: Svp, Global Mss

5.4K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$497K

2
MSA

Mell Scott A

Officer: Cfo & Treasurer

1.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$167K

3
SEC

Scroggins Eric C.

Officer: Clo & Asst. Secretary

1.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$150K

4
BGF

Bohley G Frederick

Officer: Allison Coo,Pres.&Bu Leader At

1.1K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$130K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Slightly bearish with $411K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.57:1

Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$317K

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
-100%
3Y-100.0%
5Y-100.0%
10Y-100.0%
ย 

alsn Dividend History

ALSN
10Y CAGR +7%
Latest $0.29
Annual $1.39
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%