Air Lease Corporation
$65.00
+0.0000%Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. It also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines, and other investors. In addition, the company provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. As of December 31, 2021, it owned a fleet of 382 aircraft, including 278 narrowbody aircraft and 104 widebody aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 7.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 7.0, earnings yield +14.4%, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +12.8%, ROIC +3.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +36.1%, ROE +12.8%, ROIC +3.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +74.2%, momentum 0.0%, net margin +36.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Air Lease Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Air Lease Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Air Lease Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Air Lease Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Air Lease Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Air Lease Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AL stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 65.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 65.00 to a high of 65.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 65.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 65.00 to a high of 65.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Air Lease Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $25.37M worth of AL shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
270.3K
17.31M
-17.3M
-$17.31M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
124.6K
7.95M
-8.0M
-$7.95M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
2.0K
110.87K
-111K
-$111K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Plueger John L
Director, Officer: Ceo And President
$9.98M
Udvar-Hazy Steven F
Director
$9.77M
Korde Kishore
Officer: Evp
$1.93M
Willis Gregory B
Officer: Evp And Cfo
$1.50M
Hart Matthew J
Director
$1.25M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $25.37M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
al Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.