Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJGยทNYSE

$202.50

-1.6%
Financial ServicesInsurance - Brokers

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance brokerage, consulting, third-party claims settlement, and administration services in the United States, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, India, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Brokerage and Risk Management segments. The Brokerage segment consists of retail and wholesale insurance brokerage operations; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverage's to underwriting enterprises. This segment also performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers brokerage and consulting services to businesses and organizations, including commercial, not-for-profit, and public entities, as well as individuals in the areas of insurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services to enterprises and public entities; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent insurance brokers and consultants. It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and not-for-profit entities. The company was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$52.03B
EPS5.8300
P/E Ratio45.10
Earnings Date07/30/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is elevated (P/E 45.1).

Valuation inputs: P/E 45.1, earnings yield +2.2%, momentum -1.6%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +6.4%, ROIC +5.3%).

Profitability stack: net margin +10.7%, ROE +6.4%, ROIC +5.3%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +67.0%, momentum -1.6%, net margin +10.7%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

AJG ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Fair Value Envelope

AJG ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that AJG has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $202.5, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $202.5
3Y+10.0%
5Y+36.0%
10Y+150.0%
3Y+63.0%
5Y+99.0%
10Y+145.0%
3Y+34.0%
5Y+82.0%
10Y+276.0%
3Y+39.0%
5Y+10.0%
10Y+210.0%
3Y+48.0%
5Y+8.0%
10Y+342.0%
3Y+84.0%
5Y+216.0%
10Y+515.0%
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Profit Bridge

AJG ยท NYSE
Revenue13.94B
Cost of Goods Sold (6.31B)
Gross Profit7.63B
Operating Expenses (5.08B)
Operating Income2.55B
Interest Expense (638.80M)
Other Income/Expense-677.90M
Pretax Income1.87B
Income Tax (368.30M)
Net Income1.49B
Net Income
1.49B

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

54.8%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

18.3%

Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.

Net Profit Margin

10.7%

Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.

Effective Tax Rate

19.7%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.

54.75%
Gross Profit Margin
30%
3Y+30.0%
5Y+53.0%
10Y+94.0%
18.28%
Operating Profit Margin
-7%
3Y-6.0%
5Y+23.0%
10Y+118.0%
10.72%
Net Profit Margin
-15%
3Y-18.0%
5Y-8.0%
10Y+53.0%
6.41%
Return on Equity
-12%
3Y-47.0%
5Y-52.0%
10Y-42.0%
2.11%
Return on Assets
-7%
3Y-27.0%
5Y-42.0%
10Y-39.0%
5.25%
Return on Invested Capital
4%
3Y-34.0%
5Y-36.0%
10Y-35.0%
AJG

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Cash Conversion Engine

AJG ยท NYSE
Net Income1.49B
Depreciation & Amortization1.12B
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-539.00M
Others-147.00M
Capital Expenditures-145.00M
Free Cash Flow1.78B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

119.5%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

7.5%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-26.9%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$539.00M

Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Funding & Solvency Profile

AJG ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents1.41B
Net Receivables5.96B
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets34.65B
Total Current Assets42 B
Property, Plant & Equipment1.35B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets33.32B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets1.57B
Total Non-Current Assets3 B
Total Assets
78.30B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.06x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

2.29x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

2 B

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

54% Current

Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Street Expectations Map

AJG ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that AJG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 268.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 211.00 to a high of 334.00.

Lowest Target
211.00
4.20%
Consensus Target
268.38
32.53%
Highest Target
334.00
64.94%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 268.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 211.00 to a high of 334.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+32.5%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

45.8% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Analyst Conviction

Moderate

Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Insider Positioning

AJG ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $151K and sold $22.29M worth of AJG shares, resulting in $22.14M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

6.8K

1.48M

Net Activity

-1.5M

-$1.48M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

56.3K

13.59M

Net Activity

-13.6M

-$13.59M

6-9 Months

Bought

538

132.27K

Sold

21.0K

5.99M

Net Activity

-5.9M

-$5.86M

9-12 Months

Bought

59

18.78K

Sold

4.0K

1.22M

Net Activity

-1.2M

-$1.21M

Top Buyers

1
PMR

Pesch Michael Robert

Officer: Vice President

597 sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$151K

Top Sellers

1
GJPJ

Gallagher J Patrick Jr

Director, Officer: Ceo

27.4K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$6.32M

2
BWD

Bay Walter D.

Officer: General Counsel

15.8K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$4.04M

3
HDK

Howell Douglas K

Officer: Vp & Chief Financial Officer

13.5K sharesโ€ข4 transactions

$3.84M

4
CRC

Cary Richard C

Officer: Controller, Cao

13.0K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$3.41M

5
HSR

Hudson Scott R

Officer: Vice President

9.1K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$2.43M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $22.14M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.01:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$1.48M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

0.32%
Dividend Yield
30%
3Y+12.0%
5Y-19.0%
10Y-60.0%
ย 

ajg Dividend History

AJG
10Y CAGR +6%
Latest $0.7
Annual $3.35
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%