Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$202.50
-1.6%Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance brokerage, consulting, third-party claims settlement, and administration services in the United States, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, India, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Brokerage and Risk Management segments. The Brokerage segment consists of retail and wholesale insurance brokerage operations; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverage's to underwriting enterprises. This segment also performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers brokerage and consulting services to businesses and organizations, including commercial, not-for-profit, and public entities, as well as individuals in the areas of insurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services to enterprises and public entities; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent insurance brokers and consultants. It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and not-for-profit entities. The company was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 45.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 45.1, earnings yield +2.2%, momentum -1.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.4%, ROIC +5.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +10.7%, ROE +6.4%, ROIC +5.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +67.0%, momentum -1.6%, net margin +10.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Fair Value Envelope
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AJG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 268.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 211.00 to a high of 334.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 268.38, with estimates ranging from a low of 211.00 to a high of 334.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $151K and sold $22.29M worth of AJG shares, resulting in $22.14M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
6.8K
1.48M
-1.5M
-$1.48M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
56.3K
13.59M
-13.6M
-$13.59M
6-9 Months
538
132.27K
21.0K
5.99M
-5.9M
-$5.86M
9-12 Months
59
18.78K
4.0K
1.22M
-1.2M
-$1.21M
Top Buyers
Pesch Michael Robert
Officer: Vice President
$151K
Top Sellers
Gallagher J Patrick Jr
Director, Officer: Ceo
$6.32M
Bay Walter D.
Officer: General Counsel
$4.04M
Howell Douglas K
Officer: Vp & Chief Financial Officer
$3.84M
Cary Richard C
Officer: Controller, Cao
$3.41M
Hudson Scott R
Officer: Vice President
$2.43M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $22.14M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโmay warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
ajg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AJG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.