Agilon Health, Inc.
$82.70
-11%agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -10.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -3.2%, ROIC -2.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin -6.8%, ROE -3.2%, ROIC -2.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +90.0%, momentum -10.6%, net margin -6.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Agilon Health, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Agilon Health, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Agilon Health, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Critical situation: Negative gross margins indicate fundamental business model issues. The company loses money on every sale—immediate strategic changes required.
Agilon Health, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Agilon Health, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Agilon Health, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AGL stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 53.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 81.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 53.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 81.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
Agilon Health, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $352K and sold $112K worth of AGL shares, resulting in $240K of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
500.0K
301.05K
0
0.00
+301K
+$301K
6-9 Months
81.0K
50.94K
0
0.00
+51K
+$51K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
47.4K
111.72K
-112K
-$112K
Top Buyers
Shaker Benjamin
Officer: Chief Markets Officer
$301K
Wulf John William
Director
$51K
Top Sellers
Schwaneke Jeffrey A.
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$110K
Zamore Denise
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$2K
Gertsch Timothy
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$450
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $240K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
No Dividend Yield Data
AGL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
agl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AGL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.