Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
$17.91
+4.7%Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -43.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E -43.7, earnings yield N/A, momentum +4.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -4.2%, ROIC -0.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin -4.6%, ROE -4.2%, ROIC -0.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +45.7%, momentum +4.7%, net margin -4.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AESI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 28.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 28.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $3.59M worth of AESI shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
8.9K
105.04K
-105K
-$105K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
230.0K
2.73M
-2.7M
-$2.73M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
76.5K
743.70K
-744K
-$744K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
728
8.61K
-9K
-$9K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Shepard Gregory M
Other: See Remarks
$2.73M
Scholla Chris
10 Percent Owner, Other: Member Of 10% Owner Group
$574K
Voelter Dathan C
10 Percent Owner, Officer, Other: General Counsel And Secretary
$284K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $3.59M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
aesi Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AESI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.