The AES Corporation
$14.73
+0.14%The AES Corporation operates as a diversified power generation and utility company. It owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries. The company also owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market. It uses a range of fuels and technologies to generate electricity, including coal, gas, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass; and renewables, such as energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 31,459 megawatts. It has operations in the United States, Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 11.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 11.7, earnings yield +8.6%, momentum +0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +13.8%, ROIC +4.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.8%, ROE +13.8%, ROIC +4.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +77.0%, momentum +0.1%, net margin +7.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
The AES Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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The AES Corporation Fair Value Envelope
The AES Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
The AES Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
The AES Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
The AES Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AES stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 23.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 23.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
The AES Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for AES.
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.
Insider Participation
No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.
aes Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AES by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.