ADT Inc.
$6.66
-0.075%ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, commercial, and multi-site customers. The company primarily offers monitored security and automation solutions, including the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion, control access, sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical emergencies, or incapacitation. It also provides interactive and smart home solutions that allow customers to use their smart phones, tablets, and laptops to arm and disarm their security systems, adjust lighting or thermostat levels, and view real-time video of their premises; and creates customized and automated schedules for managing lights, thermostats, appliances, garage doors, cameras, and other connected devices, as well as offers monitoring and maintenance services. The company offers its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, Protection 1, ADT Commercial, and Blue by ADT names. It operates through a network of approximately 250 sales and service offices, as well as three regional distribution centers, which are supported by 17 multi-use sales, customer, and field support locations housing its nine UL-listed monitoring centers and four national sales centers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 9.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 9.3, earnings yield +10.8%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +15.8%, ROIC +6.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +11.6%, ROE +15.8%, ROIC +6.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +76.1%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +11.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
ADT Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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ADT Inc. Fair Value Envelope
ADT Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
ADT Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
ADT Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโpotential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
ADT Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ADT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.97, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.50 to a high of 10.40.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.97, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.50 to a high of 10.40.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
ADT Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $526K and sold $962.16M worth of ADT shares, resulting in $961.63M of net selling activity.
3 Months
69.9K
477.41K
0
0.00
+477K
+$477K
3-6 Months
7.3K
49.06K
0
0.00
+49K
+$49K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
116.0M
962.16M
-962.2M
-$962.16M
Top Buyers
Houston Daniel Joseph
Director
$250K
Likosar Jeffrey
Officer: Pres Corp Dev & Trans. & Cfo
$101K
Ahmad Fawad
Officer: Evp, Chief Oper And Cust. Off.
$51K
Khan Omar
Officer: Evp, Chief Business Officer
$50K
Scott David A.
Officer: Evp, Chief People & Admin. Off
$49K
Top Sellers
Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$962.16M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $961.63M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
adt Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ADT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.