ADT Inc.

ADT Inc.

ADTยทNYSE

$6.66

-0.075%
IndustrialsSecurity & Protection Services

ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, commercial, and multi-site customers. The company primarily offers monitored security and automation solutions, including the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion, control access, sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical emergencies, or incapacitation. It also provides interactive and smart home solutions that allow customers to use their smart phones, tablets, and laptops to arm and disarm their security systems, adjust lighting or thermostat levels, and view real-time video of their premises; and creates customized and automated schedules for managing lights, thermostats, appliances, garage doors, cameras, and other connected devices, as well as offers monitoring and maintenance services. The company offers its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, Protection 1, ADT Commercial, and Blue by ADT names. It operates through a network of approximately 250 sales and service offices, as well as three regional distribution centers, which are supported by 17 multi-use sales, customer, and field support locations housing its nine UL-listed monitoring centers and four national sales centers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$4.89B
EPS0.7200
P/E Ratio9.25
Earnings Date07/30/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 9.3).

Valuation inputs: P/E 9.3, earnings yield +10.8%, momentum -0.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is acceptable (ROE +15.8%, ROIC +6.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin +11.6%, ROE +15.8%, ROIC +6.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +76.1%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +11.6%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

adt

ADT Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

ADT ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

ADT Inc.

ADT Inc. Fair Value Envelope

ADT ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that ADT has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $6.66, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for ADT Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $6.66
3Y+279.0%
5Y-188.0%
10Y-194.0%
3Y-1.0%
5Y-4.0%
10Y+74.0%
3Y+349.0%
5Y-194.0%
10Y-211.0%
3Y-
5Y+38.0%
10Y+205.0%
3Y+35.0%
5Y+66.0%
10Y+1764.0%
3Y-11.0%
5Y-2.0%
10Y-8.0%
ADT Inc.

ADT Inc. Profit Bridge

ADT ยท NYSE
Revenue5.13B
Cost of Goods Sold (2.60B)
Gross Profit2.53B
Operating Expenses (1.19B)
Operating Income1.33B
Interest Expense (410.61M)
Other Income/Expense-500.26M
Pretax Income833.81M
Income Tax (233.29M)
Net Income595.95M
Net Income
595.95M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

49.3%

Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.

Operating Margin

26.0%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

11.6%

Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.

Effective Tax Rate

28.0%

Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

49.25%
Gross Profit Margin
-3%
3Y+16.0%
5Y+46.0%
10Y-36.0%
26.01%
Operating Profit Margin
3%
3Y+95.0%
5Y+756.0%
10Y-435.0%
11.62%
Net Profit Margin
14%
3Y+353.0%
5Y-198.0%
10Y-164.0%
15.77%
Return on Equity
20%
3Y+308.0%
5Y-176.0%
10Y-212.0%
3.77%
Return on Assets
21%
3Y+408.0%
5Y-196.0%
10Y-221.0%
6.36%
Return on Invested Capital
2%
3Y+101.0%
5Y+622.0%
10Y-779.0%
ADT

ADT Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

ADT ยท NYSE
Net Income601.00M
Depreciation & Amortization1.37B
Stock-Based Compensation55.00M
Change in Working Capital-550.00M
Others270.00M
Capital Expenditures-572.00M
Free Cash Flow1.31B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

218.5%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

30.3%

Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.

FCF Growth Trend

-23.7%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$550.00M

Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

adt

ADT Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

ADT ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents119.00M
Net Receivables368.00M
Inventory189.00M
Other Current Assets223.00M
Total Current Assets899 M
Property, Plant & Equipment273.00M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets9.83B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets4.91B
Total Non-Current Assets5 B
Total Assets
15.91B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.84x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

3.19x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

-168000000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโ€”potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

6% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

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ADT Inc. Street Expectations Map

ADT ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that ADT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.97, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.50 to a high of 10.40.

Lowest Target
7.50
12.61%
Consensus Target
8.97
34.68%
Highest Target
10.40
56.16%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.97, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.50 to a high of 10.40.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+34.7%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

32.3% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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ADT Inc. Insider Positioning

ADT ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $526K and sold $962.16M worth of ADT shares, resulting in $961.63M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

69.9K

477.41K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+477K

+$477K

3-6 Months

Bought

7.3K

49.06K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+49K

+$49K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

116.0M

962.16M

Net Activity

-962.2M

-$962.16M

Top Buyers

1
HDJ

Houston Daniel Joseph

Director

36.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$250K

2
LJ

Likosar Jeffrey

Officer: Pres Corp Dev & Trans. & Cfo

15.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$101K

3
AF

Ahmad Fawad

Officer: Evp, Chief Oper And Cust. Off.

7.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$51K

4
KO

Khan Omar

Officer: Evp, Chief Business Officer

7.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$50K

5
SDA

Scott David A.

Officer: Evp, Chief People & Admin. Off

7.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$49K

Top Sellers

1
AMHGL

Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc

10 Percent Owner

116.0M sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$962.16M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $961.63M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$477K

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

High Buying

5 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

0.84%
Dividend Yield
23%
3Y+72.0%
5Y+87.0%
10Y-
ย 

adt Dividend History

ADT
10Y CAGR +5%
Latest $0.055
Annual $0.275
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%