Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.74
-2.2%Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also provides licensed establishment partners gaming solutions that appeal to players who patronize those businesses. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, pinball machines, and other related entertainment equipment. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13,639 video gaming terminals across 2,584 locations in Illinois. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 19.3, earnings yield +5.2%, momentum -2.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +19.1%, ROIC +7.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +3.9%, ROE +19.1%, ROIC +7.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +75.7%, momentum -2.2%, net margin +3.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Accel Entertainment, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ACEL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 17.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 17.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $578K and sold $10.42M worth of ACEL shares, resulting in $9.85M of net selling activity.
3 Months
50.0K
577.50K
800.4K
9.15M
-8.6M
-$8.57M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
60.0K
675.28K
-675K
-$675K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
57.5K
602.93K
-603K
-$603K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Wardinski Bruce D
Director
$578K
Top Sellers
Rubenstein Gordon
Director
$7.55M
Rubenstein Andrew H.
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Ceo And President
$1.71M
Ruttenberg David W.
Director
$814K
Harmer Derek
Officer: Chief Compliance Officer
$343K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $9.85M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
acel Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ACEL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.