Zumiez Inc.
$23.25
-0.60%Zumiez Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women. Its hardgoods include skateboards, snowboards, bindings, components, and other equipment. As of February 26, 2022, the company operated 738 stores, including 602 stores in the United States, 52 stores in Canada, 67 stores in Europe, and 17 stores in Australia under the names of Zumiez, Blue Tomato, and Fast Times. The company also operates zumiez.com, zumiez.ca, blue-tomato.com, and fasttimes.com.au e-commerce websites. Zumiez Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Lynnwood, Washington.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 30.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 30.9, earnings yield +3.2%, momentum -0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.1%, ROIC +1.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.4%, ROE +4.1%, ROIC +1.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +53.7%, momentum -0.6%, net margin +1.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Zumiez Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Zumiez Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Zumiez Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Zumiez Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Zumiez Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Zumiez Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ZUMZ stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 19.00 to a high of 20.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 19.00 to a high of 20.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Consensus overvaluation: Analysts agree the stock is richly valued with limited upside. Consider booking profits or defensive positioning unless you have contrarian conviction in unrecognized catalysts.
Zumiez Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.63M worth of ZUMZ shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
10.0K
221.56K
-222K
-$222K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
41.7K
1.22M
-1.2M
-$1.22M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
4.8K
100.06K
-100K
-$100K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
6.6K
84.62K
-85K
-$85K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Smith Travis
Director
$542K
Visser Chris K.
Officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.
$506K
Ellis Adam Christopher
Officer: President International
$208K
Bauza Carmen
Director
$208K
Valletta Liliana Gil
Director
$162K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.63M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
ZUMZ has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
zumz Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ZUMZ by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.