Exagen Inc.

Exagen Inc.

XGNยทNASDAQ

$4.54

-1.1%
HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & Research

Exagen Inc. develops and commercializes various testing products based on its cell-bound complement activation products technology under the AVISE brand in the United States. It enables rheumatologists to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus that measures activation of the complement system by quantifying the level of B-cell C4d and erythrocyte bound C4d in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS, which consists of a panel of autoantibody tests that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody and associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-CarP test, which identifies RA patients with severe disease; and AVISE PC4d to measure platelet- bound C4d. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a biomarker blood test; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop novel patented biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$109.69M
EPS-0.9300
P/E Ratio-4.88
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -4.9).

Valuation inputs: P/E -4.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -1.1%, ROIC -30.0%).

Profitability stack: net margin -30.0%, ROE -1.1%, ROIC -30.0%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +69.9%, momentum -1.1%, net margin -30.0%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Exagen Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

XGN ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Exagen Inc.

Exagen Inc. Fair Value Envelope

XGN ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that XGN has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $4.54, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Exagen Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $4.54
3Y-66.0%
5Y-30.0%
10Y-100.0%
3Y+46.0%
5Y+59.0%
10Y+271.0%
3Y-58.0%
5Y+20.0%
10Y+4.0%
3Y-58.0%
5Y-3.0%
10Y+14.0%
3Y-61.0%
5Y-2.0%
10Y+12.0%
3Y-33.0%
5Y-26.0%
10Y+297.0%
Exagen Inc.

Exagen Inc. Profit Bridge

XGN ยท NASDAQ
Revenue66.58M
Cost of Goods Sold (27.78M)
Gross Profit38.80M
Operating Expenses (52.87M)
Operating Income-14.07M
Interest Expense (4.32M)
Other Income/Expense-5.83M
Pretax Income-19.90M
Income Tax (51.00K)
Net Income-19.95M
Net Income
-19.95M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

58.3%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

-21.1%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-30.0%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.

58.28%
Gross Profit Margin
-2%
3Y+24.0%
5Y-4.0%
10Y+24.0%
-21.13%
Operating Profit Margin
-14%
3Y-79.0%
5Y-42.0%
10Y-63.0%
-29.97%
Net Profit Margin
10%
3Y-71.0%
5Y-25.0%
10Y-72.0%
-114.34%
Return on Equity
-28%
3Y+2.0%
5Y+187.0%
10Y-232.0%
-34.39%
Return on Assets
2%
3Y-37.0%
5Y+61.0%
10Y-74.0%
-30.02%
Return on Invested Capital
-28%
3Y-49.0%
5Y+39.0%
10Y-84.0%
XGN

Exagen Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

XGN ยท NASDAQ
Net Income-19.95M
Depreciation & Amortization2.12M
Stock-Based Compensation2.16M
Change in Working Capital-1.98M
Others4.03M
Capital Expenditures-641.00K
Free Cash Flow-14.27M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

71.5%

Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.

CapEx Intensity

-4.7%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-3.4%

Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expandingโ€”monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.

Working Capital Impact

-$1.98M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

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Exagen Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

XGN ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents21.51M
Net Receivables15.77M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets6.30M
Total Current Assets44 M
Property, Plant & Equipment7.79M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets584.00K
Total Non-Current Assets8 M
Total Assets
51.96M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

3.47x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

2.60x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

31 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

84% Current

Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.

Financial Health Insight

Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.

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Exagen Inc. Street Expectations Map

XGN ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that XGN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 8.00 to a high of 10.00.

Lowest Target
8.00
76.21%
Consensus Target
8.67
90.97%
Highest Target
10.00
120.26%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 8.00 to a high of 10.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+91.0%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

23.1% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

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Exagen Inc. Insider Positioning

XGN ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $364K and sold $680K worth of XGN shares, resulting in $315K of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

28.7K

103.81K

Net Activity

-104K

-$104K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

31.8K

375.60K

Net Activity

-376K

-$376K

9-12 Months

Bought

49.5K

364.32K

Sold

20.5K

200.36K

Net Activity

+164K

+$164K

Top Buyers

1
NTS

Nova Tina Susan

Director

13.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$99K

2
HA

Hooker Ana

Director

9.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$66K

3
KSD

Kahn Scott D

Director

9.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$66K

4
SF

Stokes Frank

Director

9.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$66K

5
KP

Kim Paul

Director

9.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$66K

Top Sellers

1
AJ

Aballi John

Director, Officer: President And Ceo

58.9K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$474K

2
BJG

Black Jeffrey G.

Officer: Chief Financial Officer

22.1K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$206K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Slightly bearish with $315K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.54:1

Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.

Insider Participation

High Buying

5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
ย 

xgn Dividend History

XGN
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%