United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$105.14
-3.4%United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 10.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 10.3, earnings yield +9.7%, momentum -3.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +21.9%, ROIC +6.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.7%, ROE +21.9%, ROIC +6.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +80.0%, momentum -3.4%, net margin +5.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Neutral working capital impact. Changes in current assets and liabilities balanced out.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that UAL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 140.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 112.00 to a high of 182.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 140.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 112.00 to a high of 182.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $30.73M worth of UAL shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
41.7K
4.29M
-4.3M
-$4.29M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
19.0K
2.02M
-2.0M
-$2.02M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
120.0K
12.94M
-12.9M
-$12.94M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
123.4K
11.48M
-11.5M
-$11.48M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Kirby J Scott
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$12.94M
Gebo Kate
Officer: Evp Hr And Labor Relations
$6.58M
Hart Brett J
Officer: President
$4.24M
Harford Barney
Director
$2.30M
Leskinen Michael D.
Officer: Evp & Chief Financial Officer
$2.10M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $30.73M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
ual Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on UAL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.