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Twin Hospitality Group

TWNP·NASDAQ

$0.91

-2.5%
Consumer CyclicalRestaurants

Twin Hospitality Group, Inc. engages in the operation and franchise of restaurants and sports bars. Its restaurants include Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones. The company was founded on February 6, 2024 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$52.28M
EPS-0.9600
P/E Ratio-18.75
Earnings Date02/11/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -18.8).

Valuation inputs: P/E -18.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.5%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +56.9%, ROIC -1.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin -13.6%, ROE +56.9%, ROIC -1.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +115.6%, momentum -2.5%, net margin -13.6%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Twin Hospitality Group Market vs Earnings Trajectory

TWNP · NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

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Twin Hospitality Group Fair Value Envelope

TWNP · NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that TWNP has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $0.9119, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Twin Hospitality Group.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $0.9119
3Y+284.0%
5Y+284.0%
10Y+284.0%
3Y+113.0%
5Y+113.0%
10Y+113.0%
3Y+277.0%
5Y+277.0%
10Y+277.0%
3Y+144.0%
5Y+144.0%
10Y+144.0%
3Y+68.0%
5Y+68.0%
10Y+68.0%
3Y+39.0%
5Y+39.0%
10Y+39.0%
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Twin Hospitality Group Profit Bridge

TWNP · NASDAQ
Revenue353.80M
Cost of Goods Sold (257.80M)
Gross Profit96.00M
Operating Expenses (104.33M)
Operating Income-8.33M
Interest Expense (46.14M)
Other Income/Expense-48.24M
Pretax Income-56.57M
Income Tax (-8.40M)
Net Income-48.17M
Net Income
-48.17M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

27.1%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

-2.4%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-13.6%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.

27.13%
Gross Profit Margin
3Y-22.0%
5Y-22.0%
10Y-22.0%
-2.35%
Operating Profit Margin
3Y-133.0%
5Y-133.0%
10Y-133.0%
-13.61%
Net Profit Margin
3Y+77.0%
5Y+77.0%
10Y+77.0%
56.93%
Return on Equity
3Y-368.0%
5Y-368.0%
10Y-368.0%
-8.88%
Return on Assets
3Y+172.0%
5Y+172.0%
10Y+172.0%
-1.40%
Return on Invested Capital
3Y-128.0%
5Y-128.0%
10Y-128.0%
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Twin Hospitality Group Cash Conversion Engine

TWNP · NASDAQ
Net Income-48.17M
Depreciation & Amortization23.52M
Stock-Based Compensation211.00K
Change in Working Capital-3.46M
Others21.11M
Capital Expenditures-25.14M
Free Cash Flow-40.17M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

83.4%

Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.

CapEx Intensity

-167.2%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

0.0%

Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.

Working Capital Impact

-$3.46M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

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Twin Hospitality Group Funding & Solvency Profile

TWNP · NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents6.06M
Net Receivables2.14M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets26.07M
Total Current Assets34 M
Property, Plant & Equipment213.91M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets282.49M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets4.42M
Total Non-Current Assets218 M
Total Assets
535.07M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.60x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Working Capital

-23006000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

6% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Twin Hospitality Group Street Expectations Map

TWNP · NASDAQ

No Target Data

No analyst price targets available for twnp.

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Twin Hospitality Group Insider Positioning

TWNP · NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $31.20M worth of TWNP shares, with no selling activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

7.1M

31.20M

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+31.2M

+$31.20M

Top Buyers

1
FBI

Fat Brands, Inc

10 Percent Owner

7.1M shares1 transactions

$31.20M

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Strong bullish signal with $31.20M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

∞:1

Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.

Insider Participation

High Buying

1 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

Insider Activity Insight

Unanimous insider buying: Zero selling combined with active buying is rare and typically very bullish. Insiders appear to see significant upside with limited downside risk.

No Dividend Yield Data

TWNP has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

 

twnp Dividend History

TWNP
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%