The Trade Desk, Inc.
$20.56
-0.15%Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 22.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 22.4, earnings yield +4.5%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +17.8%, ROIC +13.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +15.3%, ROE +17.8%, ROIC +13.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +59.6%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +15.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
The Trade Desk, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
The Trade Desk, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
The Trade Desk, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
The Trade Desk, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
The Trade Desk, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
The Trade Desk, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TTD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 29.95, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 53.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 29.95, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 53.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
The Trade Desk, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $135.71M and sold $6.18M worth of TTD shares, resulting in $129.53M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
53.7K
1.13M
-1.1M
-$1.13M
3-6 Months
5.5M
135.71M
102.8K
3.13M
+132.6M
+$132.58M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
1.4K
67.62K
-68K
-$68K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
20.3K
1.85M
-1.8M
-$1.85M
Top Buyers
Green Jeffrey Terry
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: President And Ceo
$135.71M
Top Sellers
Falberg Kathryn E
Director
$3.13M
Grant Jay R
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$1.85M
Jacobson Samantha
Director
$1.13M
Cunningham Andrea Lee
Director
$68K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $129.53M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
TTD has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
ttd Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TTD by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.