Tractor Supply Company
$29.14
-8.3%Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 14.1, earnings yield +7.1%, momentum -8.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +42.5%, ROIC +13.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.1%, ROE +42.5%, ROIC +13.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +76.4%, momentum -8.3%, net margin +7.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Tractor Supply Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Tractor Supply Company Fair Value Envelope
Tractor Supply Company Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Tractor Supply Company Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Tractor Supply Company Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Tractor Supply Company Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TSCO stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 54.73, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 63.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 54.73, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 63.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Tractor Supply Company Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $23.97M worth of TSCO shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
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+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
215.9K
11.60M
-11.6M
-$11.60M
6-9 Months
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0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
209.3K
12.37M
-12.4M
-$12.37M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Estep Jonathan S
Officer: Evp Chief Merchandise Officer
$8.24M
Barton Kurt D
Officer: Evp Chief Financial Officer
$5.96M
Lawton Iii Harry A
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$4.50M
Mills Robert D
Officer: Evp Chief Technology Officer
$3.41M
Weikel Mark J
Director
$479K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $23.97M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
tsco Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TSCO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.