Trinity Capital Inc.
$17.29
-2.3%Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company. It is a venture capital firm specializing in venture debt to growth stage companies looking for loans and/or equipment financing. Trinity Capital Inc. was founded in 2019 is based in Phoenix, Arizona with additional offices in Lutherville-Timonium, Maryland, San Diego, California and Austin, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 7.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 7.5, earnings yield +13.4%, momentum -2.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +12.4%, ROIC +8.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +58.4%, ROE +12.4%, ROIC +8.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +56.0%, momentum -2.3%, net margin +58.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Trinity Capital Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 16.5%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-10.4%), the stock price has risen (+16.5%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Trinity Capital Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Trinity Capital Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Trinity Capital Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Trinity Capital Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Trinity Capital Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TRIN stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 17.00 to a high of 17.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 17.00 to a high of 17.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Trinity Capital Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $762K worth of TRIN shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
32.0K
468.87K
0
0.00
+469K
+$469K
3-6 Months
5.0K
75.26K
0
0.00
+75K
+$75K
6-9 Months
15.1K
217.50K
0
0.00
+217K
+$217K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Brown Steve Louis
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$503K
Brown Kyle Steven
Director, Officer: Ceo, President And Cio
$200K
Estes Ronald E.
Director
$59K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $762K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
trin Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TRIN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.