TransMedics Group, Inc.

TransMedics Group, Inc.

TMDXยทNASDAQ

$69.69

+3.2%
HealthcareMedical - Devices

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its Organ Care System includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for extracorporeal perfusion and preservation of donor hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of donor livers. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$2.41B
EPS5.6000
P/E Ratio12.44
Earnings Date07/29/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.4).

Valuation inputs: P/E 12.4, earnings yield +8.0%, momentum +3.2%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +40.2%, ROIC +10.9%).

Profitability stack: net margin +31.4%, ROE +40.2%, ROIC +10.9%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +55.7%, momentum +3.2%, net margin +31.4%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

tmdx

TransMedics Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

TMDX ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

TransMedics Group, Inc.

TransMedics Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

TMDX ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that TMDX has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $69.69, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for TransMedics Group, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $69.69
3Y-555.0%
5Y-583.0%
10Y-437.0%
3Y+548.0%
5Y+2262.0%
10Y+9652.0%
3Y-625.0%
5Y-762.0%
10Y-891.0%
3Y-521.0%
5Y-737.0%
10Y-900.0%
3Y-331.0%
5Y-535.0%
10Y-622.0%
3Y+285.0%
5Y+603.0%
10Y+1739.0%
TransMedics Group, Inc.

TransMedics Group, Inc. Profit Bridge

TMDX ยท NASDAQ
Revenue605.49M
Cost of Goods Sold (242.69M)
Gross Profit362.81M
Operating Expenses (254.22M)
Operating Income108.58M
Interest Expense (13.78M)
Other Income/Expense-1.06M
Pretax Income107.52M
Income Tax (-82.77M)
Net Income190.29M
Net Income
190.29M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

59.9%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

17.9%

Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.

Net Profit Margin

31.4%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

-77.0%

Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

59.92%
Gross Profit Margin
1%
3Y-14.0%
5Y-8.0%
10Y+386.0%
17.93%
Operating Profit Margin
111%
3Y-153.0%
5Y-117.0%
10Y-105.0%
31.43%
Net Profit Margin
291%
3Y-181.0%
5Y-128.0%
10Y-108.0%
40.22%
Return on Equity
159%
3Y-308.0%
5Y-245.0%
10Y-165.0%
17.81%
Return on Assets
304%
3Y-236.0%
5Y-194.0%
10Y-143.0%
10.94%
Return on Invested Capital
120%
3Y-189.0%
5Y-158.0%
10Y-123.0%
TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

TMDX ยท NASDAQ
Net Income190.29M
Depreciation & Amortization27.18M
Stock-Based Compensation36.86M
Change in Working Capital17.25M
Others4.79M
Capital Expenditures-59.25M
Free Cash Flow133.59M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

70.2%

Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.

CapEx Intensity

30.7%

Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.

FCF Growth Trend

+265.0%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

+$17.25M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.

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TransMedics Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

TMDX ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents461.74M
Net Receivables90.73M
Inventory49.89M
Other Current Assets16.92M
Total Current Assets619 M
Property, Plant & Equipment700.97M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets11.55M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets20.54M
Total Non-Current Assets722 M
Total Assets
1.43B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

6.74x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

1.90x

Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.

Working Capital

527 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

43% Current

Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.

Financial Health Insight

Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.

tmdx

TransMedics Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map

TMDX ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that TMDX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 120.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 75.00 to a high of 142.00.

Lowest Target
75.00
7.62%
Consensus Target
120.20
72.48%
Highest Target
142.00
103.76%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 120.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 75.00 to a high of 142.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+72.5%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

55.7% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Analyst Conviction

Low

Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.

Market Sentiment Insight

High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.

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TransMedics Group, Inc. Insider Positioning

TMDX ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $2.77M and sold $4.57M worth of TMDX shares, resulting in $1.81M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

14.9K

2.16M

Net Activity

-2.2M

-$2.16M

6-9 Months

Bought

8.8K

1.00M

Sold

13.1K

1.80M

Net Activity

-797K

-$797K

9-12 Months

Bought

15.0K

1.77M

Sold

4.8K

615.89K

Net Activity

+1.1M

+$1.15M

Top Buyers

1
HWH

Hassanein Waleed H

Director, Officer: President & Ceo

23.8K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$2.77M

Top Sellers

1
WD

Weill David

Director

8.6K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$1.22M

2
BEM

Basile Edward M

Director

8.3K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$1.06M

3
HG

Hernandez Gerardo

Officer: Chief Financial Officer

7.2K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$1.05M

4
RAP

Ranganath Anil P.

Officer: See Remarks

4.5K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$652K

5
CN

Corcoran Nicholas

Officer: See Remarks

3.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$413K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Slightly bearish with $1.81M net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.60:1

Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

No Dividend Yield Data

TMDX has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

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tmdx Dividend History

TMDX
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%