Target Hospitality Corp.
$16.70
-2.1%Target Hospitality Corp. operates as a specialty rental and hospitality services company in North America. The company operates through four segments: Hospitality & Facilities Services - South, Hospitality & Facilities Services - Midwest, Government, and TCPL Keystone. It owns a network of specialty rental accommodation units with approximately 15,528 beds across 27 communities, which include 26 owned and 1 leased; and operates 1 community not owned or leased by the company. Target Hospitality Corp. also provides catering and food, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, security, health and recreation, workforce community management, concierge, and laundry services. It serves the U.S. government, government contractors, investment grade natural resource development companies, and energy infrastructure companies. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -45.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E -45.1, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -9.5%, ROIC -6.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin -11.6%, ROE -9.5%, ROIC -6.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +26.6%, momentum -2.1%, net margin -11.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Target Hospitality Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Target Hospitality Corp. Fair Value Envelope
Target Hospitality Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Target Hospitality Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Target Hospitality Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Conservative with tight liquidity: Low debt is positive, but current ratio warrants attention. Consider whether the company is efficiently deploying its equity capital.
Target Hospitality Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TH stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 22.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 22.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Target Hospitality Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.99M and sold $835K worth of TH shares, resulting in $1.15M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
22.5K
180.44K
-180K
-$180K
6-9 Months
270.0K
1.99M
79.6K
654.23K
+1.3M
+$1.33M
9-12 Months
37.5K
3.00
0
0.00
+3
+$3
Top Buyers
Robertson Stephen
Director
$1.99M
Lewis Heidi Diane
Officer: Evp, General Counsel & Sec
$3
Top Sellers
Schrenk Troy C.
Officer: Sevp, Operations & Cco
$423K
Lewis Heidi Diane
Officer: Evp, General Counsel & Sec
$411K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Positive insider sentiment with $1.15M net buying. Buying activity substantially exceeds selling, indicating insider confidence.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Strong buy/sell ratio. Buying is at least double the selling activity, suggesting robust insider confidence.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers and 2 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
th Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TH by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.