Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$52.95
+0.0000%Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops small-molecule single-agent and combination therapy candidates for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and obesity. The company develops TERN-101, a liver-distributed and non-bile acid farnesoid X receptor agonist, which is in Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of NASH; and TERN-201, a vascular adhesion protein-1 inhibitor that is in Phase Ib clinical trial for the treatment of NASH. It also develops TERN-501, a thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist with enhanced liver distribution and metabolic stability that is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of NASH; and TERN-601, a small-molecule Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 receptor agonist program that is intended to orally be administered for NASH and metabolic diseases, such as obesity. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -51.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -51.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -9.6%, ROIC -10.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin 0.0%, ROE -9.6%, ROIC -10.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +1.8%, momentum 0.0%, net margin 0.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TERN stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 55.56, with estimates ranging from a low of 35.00 to a high of 70.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 55.56, with estimates ranging from a low of 35.00 to a high of 70.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $148K and sold $6.13M worth of TERN shares, resulting in $5.99M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
12.8K
599.77K
-600K
-$600K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
135.1K
5.08M
-5.1M
-$5.08M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
25.5K
448.77K
-449K
-$449K
9-12 Months
38.3K
148.34K
853
3.64K
+145K
+$145K
Top Buyers
Burroughs Amy L.
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$90K
Gengos Andrew
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$58K
Top Sellers
Burroughs Amy L.
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$5.62M
Quigley Jill M.
Director
$441K
Kuriakose Emil
Officer: Chief Medical Officer
$69K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $5.99M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
TERN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
tern Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TERN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.