Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$16.17
+0.0000%Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 48 aircraft, including 36 passenger and 12 cargo aircraft. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 14.5, earnings yield +6.9%, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.5%, ROIC +5.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +4.7%, ROE +8.5%, ROIC +5.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +62.8%, momentum 0.0%, net margin +4.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SNCY stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 29.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 29.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $225K worth of SNCY shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
1.2K
18.85K
-19K
-$19K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
9.1K
160.50K
-161K
-$161K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
3.8K
45.51K
-46K
-$46K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Bricker Jude
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$114K
Neale Erin Rose
Officer: Svp, Chief Legal Officer
$52K
Snow Colton Matthew
Officer: Svp, Chief Commercial Officer
$27K
Coley Stephen Andrew
Officer: Svp, Chief Operating Officer
$19K
Mangione Christopher Michael
Officer: Chief Acct. Off. & Vp, Finance
$5K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $225K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
sncy Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SNCY by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.