Starbucks Corporation
$95.89
+0.40%Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 58.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 58.8, earnings yield +1.7%, momentum +0.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -22.9%, ROIC +8.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.0%, ROE -22.9%, ROIC +8.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +125.3%, momentum +0.4%, net margin +5.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Starbucks Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Starbucks Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Starbucks Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Starbucks Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Starbucks Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Starbucks Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SBUX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 108.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 90.00 to a high of 120.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 108.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 90.00 to a high of 120.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.
Starbucks Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $995K and sold $1.11M worth of SBUX shares, resulting in $117K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
7.0K
708.91K
-709K
-$709K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
4.1K
402.17K
-402K
-$402K
6-9 Months
11.7K
994.50K
0
0.00
+995K
+$995K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Knudstorp Jorgen Vig
Director
$995K
Top Sellers
Brewer Brady
Officer: Ceo, International
$658K
Kelly Sara
Officer: Evp, Chief Partner Officer
$453K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $117K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Balanced insider activity: Roughly equal buying and selling suggests normal portfolio management rather than strong directional signals. Look to other metrics for clearer investment insights.
sbux Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SBUX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.