Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.
$4.41
-15%Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises full-service and casual-dining restaurants. The company's restaurants primarily offer burgers and shareable pizzas; various appetizers, salads, soups, sandwiches, seafood, and other entrees; and desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. As of December 26, 2021, it operated approximately 531 Red Robin restaurants, including 430 were company-owned and 101 were operated by franchisees in the United States and one Canadian province. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -14.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +21.9%, ROIC +0.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.9%, ROE +21.9%, ROIC +0.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +118.9%, momentum -14.5%, net margin -1.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that RRGB stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 8.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 8.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $405K and sold $68K worth of RRGB shares, resulting in $337K of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
10.2K
32.22K
-32K
-$32K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
2.8K
10.86K
-11K
-$11K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
6.0K
24.96K
-25K
-$25K
9-12 Months
67.9K
405.47K
0
0.00
+405K
+$405K
Top Buyers
Martin Christopher Ross
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Other: See Footnote 1
$330K
Ackil Anthony S
Director
$75K
Top Sellers
Mussetter Sarah A.
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$33K
Wilson Joshua Todd
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$25K
Griffith Jesse
Officer: Chief Operations Officer
$10K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $337K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
rrgb Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on RRGB by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.