Peloton Interactive, Inc.
$6.00
-7.4%Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products with touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes under the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, and Peloton Tread+ names. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for various household users, and access to various live and on-demand classes, as well as Peloton Digital app for connected fitness subscribers to provide access to its classes. As of June 30, 2021, it had approximately 5.9 million members. The company markets and sells its interactive fitness products directly through its retail showrooms and at onepeloton.com. Peloton Interactive, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -20.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E -20.0, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +28.7%, ROIC -2.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -4.8%, ROE +28.7%, ROIC -2.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +119.5%, momentum -7.4%, net margin -4.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PTON stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 9.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 9.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $30.22M worth of PTON shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
255.5K
1.25M
-1.2M
-$1.25M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.2M
6.03M
-6.0M
-$6.03M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
2.1M
15.53M
-15.5M
-$15.53M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
933.8K
7.41M
-7.4M
-$7.41M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Cotter Jennifer Cunningham
Officer: Chief Content Officer
$7.28M
Sanders Dion C.
Officer: Chief Commercial Officer
$7.01M
Coddington Elizabeth F
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$6.25M
Caldwell Nick V.
Officer: Chief Product Officer
$4.92M
Stern Peter C
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$2.29M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $30.22M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
PTON has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
pton Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PTON by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.