Portillo's Inc.
$3.96
-1.5%Portillo's Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of fast casual and quick service restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut French fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shakes. As of March 10, 2022, it operated in 70 locations across nine states. The company also offers its products through its website. Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 14.1, earnings yield +7.1%, momentum -1.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.1%, ROIC +3.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.6%, ROE +4.1%, ROIC +3.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +69.0%, momentum -1.5%, net margin +2.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Portillo's Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Portillo's Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Portillo's Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Portillo's Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Portillo's Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
Portillo's Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PTLO stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 6.63, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.25 to a high of 8.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 6.63, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.25 to a high of 8.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Portillo's Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $3.40M and sold $28K worth of PTLO shares, resulting in $3.37M of net buying activity.
3 Months
356.2K
1.78M
0
0.00
+1.8M
+$1.78M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
3.0K
16.26K
-16K
-$16K
9-12 Months
210.6K
1.61M
1.6K
11.25K
+1.6M
+$1.60M
Top Buyers
Lee Eugene I Jr
Director
$2.78M
Hook Michelle Greig
Officer: Cfo & Treasurer
$307K
Kaiser Kelly M
Officer: General Counsel And Secretary
$207K
Osanloo Michael
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$100K
Top Sellers
Ellis Michael K
Officer: Chief Development Officer
$24K
Kaiser Kelly M
Officer: General Counsel And Secretary
$3K
Waite Jill Francine
Officer: Chief People Officer
$50
Correia Keith M
Officer: Chief Information Officer
$19
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $3.37M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers and 4 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
No Dividend Yield Data
PTLO has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
ptlo Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PTLO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.