Porch Group, Inc.
$10.90
-8.8%Porch Group, Inc. operates a software platform in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Vertical Software and Insurance. The Vertical Software segment provides software and services to home services companies and gives early access to homebuyers and homeowners. It offers services to home services companies, such as home inspectors, consumers, such as homebuyers and homeowners, service providers, such as moving, insurance, warranty, and security companies, and TV/Internet providers. This segment operates through Floify, HireAHelper, ISN, iRoofing, Palm-Tech, Porch.com, Rynoh, and V12 brands. The Insurance segment offers property related insurance policies through our own risk-bearing carrier and independent agency as well as risk-bearing home warranty company. This segment operates though American Home Protect, Elite Insurance Group, and Homeowners of America brands. In addition, the company provides property and casualty, home, auto, flood, and umbrella insurance products; and contractor services. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 61.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 61.8, earnings yield +1.6%, momentum -8.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -62.2%, ROIC +2.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +3.2%, ROE -62.2%, ROIC +2.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +97.2%, momentum -8.8%, net margin +3.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Porch Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Porch Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Porch Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Porch Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Porch Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Porch Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PRCH stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 9.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 20.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 9.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 20.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
Porch Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $25.74M worth of PRCH shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
2.3M
20.61M
-20.6M
-$20.61M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
35.0K
341.75K
-342K
-$342K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
156.3K
2.62M
-2.6M
-$2.62M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
160.0K
2.16M
-2.2M
-$2.16M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Ehrlichman Matt
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Ceo, Chairman And Founder
$13.52M
Neagle Matthew
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$7.32M
Tabak Shawn
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$2.19M
Reierson Amanda L
Director
$883K
Vengalil Regi
Director
$728K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $25.74M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
prch Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PRCH by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.