Potbelly Corporation
$17.12
+0.0000%Potbelly Corporation, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises Potbelly sandwich shops. As of December 26, 2021, it had 443 shops in 33 states and the District of Columbia, which included 397 shops and 46 franchisees operated shops. The company was formerly known as Potbelly Sandwich Works, Inc. and changed its name to Potbelly Corporation in 2002. Potbelly Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 37.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 37.2, earnings yield +2.7%, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.1%, ROIC +1.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.0%, ROE +4.1%, ROIC +1.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +77.0%, momentum 0.0%, net margin +2.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Potbelly Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Potbelly Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Potbelly Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Potbelly Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Potbelly Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Potbelly Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PBPB stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.12, with estimates ranging from a low of 17.12 to a high of 17.12.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.12, with estimates ranging from a low of 17.12 to a high of 17.12.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Potbelly Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $14.08M worth of PBPB shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
819.8K
14.04M
-14.0M
-$14.04M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
3.4K
41.56K
-42K
-$42K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Boehm Joseph
Director
$4.26M
Near David
Director
$2.72M
Head David W
Director
$2.53M
Butler Adrian M
Director
$1.53M
Sutton Jill
Director
$1.32M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $14.08M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
PBPB has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
pbpb Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PBPB by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.