Paychex, Inc.

Paychex, Inc.

PAYXยทNASDAQ

$98.45

-2.3%
IndustrialsStaffing & Employment Services

Paychex, Inc. provides integrated human capital management solutions for human resources (HR), payroll, benefits, and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India. It offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services, such as new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. The company also provides HR solutions, including payroll, employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and the on-site availability of a professionally trained HR representative; and retirement services administration, including plan implementation, ongoing compliance with government regulations, employee and employer reporting, participant and employer online access, electronic funds transfer, and other administrative services. In addition, it offers cloud-based HR administration software products for employee benefits management and administration, time and attendance, digital communication solutions, recruiting, and onboarding solutions; plan administration outsourcing and state unemployment insurance services; various business services to small to medium-sized businesses comprising payroll funding and outsourcing services, which include payroll processing, invoicing, and tax preparation; and payment processing services, financial fitness programs, and a small-business loan resource center. Further, the company provides insurance services for property and casualty coverage, such as workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cyber security protection, and commercial auto, as well as health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision, and life. It markets and sells its services primarily through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$35.27B
EPS4.6000
P/E Ratio21.40
Earnings Date06/24/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 21.4).

Valuation inputs: P/E 21.4, earnings yield +4.7%, momentum -2.3%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +40.2%, ROIC +16.8%).

Profitability stack: net margin +29.8%, ROE +40.2%, ROIC +16.8%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +75.1%, momentum -2.3%, net margin +29.8%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Paychex, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

PAYX ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Paychex, Inc.

Paychex, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

PAYX ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that PAYX has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $98.45, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Paychex, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $98.45
3Y+19.0%
5Y+50.0%
10Y+119.0%
3Y+21.0%
5Y+38.0%
10Y+89.0%
3Y+19.0%
5Y+51.0%
10Y+119.0%
3Y+30.0%
5Y+35.0%
10Y+92.0%
3Y+28.0%
5Y+34.0%
10Y+91.0%
3Y+72.0%
5Y+94.0%
10Y+157.0%
Paychex, Inc.

Paychex, Inc. Profit Bridge

PAYX ยท NASDAQ
Revenue5.57B
Cost of Goods Sold (1.54B)
Gross Profit4.03B
Operating Expenses (1.82B)
Operating Income2.21B
Interest Expense (105.40M)
Other Income/Expense-31.80M
Pretax Income2.18B
Income Tax (518.60M)
Net Income1.66B
Net Income
1.66B

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

72.4%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

39.6%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

29.7%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

23.8%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

72.35%
Gross Profit Margin
1%
3Y+2.0%
5Y+6.0%
10Y+2.0%
39.62%
Operating Profit Margin
-4%
3Y-1.0%
5Y+10.0%
10Y+2.0%
29.74%
Net Profit Margin
-7%
3Y-2.0%
5Y+9.0%
10Y+16.0%
40.15%
Return on Equity
-10%
3Y-11.0%
5Y+2.0%
10Y+1.0%
10.01%
Return on Assets
-39%
3Y-31.0%
5Y-22.0%
10Y-15.0%
16.77%
Return on Invested Capital
-48%
3Y-48.0%
5Y-38.0%
10Y-54.0%
PAYX

Paychex, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

PAYX ยท NASDAQ
Net Income1.66B
Depreciation & Amortization209.50M
Stock-Based Compensation111.80M
Change in Working Capital-280.70M
Others269.00M
Capital Expenditures-191.80M
Free Cash Flow1.76B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

106.2%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

9.8%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

+1.3%

Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expandingโ€”monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.

Working Capital Impact

-$280.70M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Paychex, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

PAYX ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents1.79B
Net Receivables2.07B
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets5.99B
Total Current Assets10 B
Property, Plant & Equipment639.00M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets6.27B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets669.60M
Total Non-Current Assets1 B
Total Assets
17.51B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.26x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

3.36x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

2 B

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

57% Current

Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.

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Paychex, Inc. Street Expectations Map

PAYX ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that PAYX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 112.14, with estimates ranging from a low of 98.00 to a high of 126.00.

Lowest Target
98.00
-0.46%
Consensus Target
112.14
13.91%
Highest Target
126.00
27.98%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 112.14, with estimates ranging from a low of 98.00 to a high of 126.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+13.9%

Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.

Analyst Agreement

25.0% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Risk-Reward Profile

61.22x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.

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Paychex, Inc. Insider Positioning

PAYX ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $197K and sold $16.66M worth of PAYX shares, resulting in $16.46M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

459

41.31K

Net Activity

-41K

-$41K

3-6 Months

Bought

2.0K

197.26K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+197K

+$197K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

114.9K

16.62M

Net Activity

-16.6M

-$16.62M

Top Buyers

1
DJ

Doody Joseph

Director

1.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$99K

2
BT

Bonadio Tom

Director

1.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$98K

Top Sellers

1
MM

Mucci Martin

Director, Other: Chairman

97.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$14.16M

2
GJB

Gibson John B

Officer: President And Ceo

12.4K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.76M

3
SRL

Schrader Robert L.

Officer: Sr. Vp, Cfo

3.2K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$444K

4
SCC

Simmons Christopher C

Officer: Vp, Controller & Treasurer

1.8K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$260K

5
RE

Roaldsen Elizabeth

Officer: Sr. Vice President

459 sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$41K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $16.46M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.01:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$41K

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

1.15%
Dividend Yield
18%
3Y+61.0%
5Y+72.0%
10Y+49.0%
ย 

payx Dividend History

PAYX
10Y CAGR +11%
Latest $1.19
Annual $4.43
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +10%