OPAL Fuels Inc.
$2.31
+4.1%OPAL Fuels Inc. engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets. It also designs, develops, constructs, operates, and services fueling stations for trucking fleets that use natural gas to displace diesel as transportation fuel. In addition, it offers design, development, and construction services for hydrogen fueling stations. Further, the company generates and sells renewable power to utilities. As of May 1, 2022, it owned and operated 24 biogas projects. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in White Plains, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 15.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 15.4, earnings yield +6.5%, momentum +4.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -1.1%, ROIC -1.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +4.2%, ROE -1.1%, ROIC -1.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +48.1%, momentum +4.1%, net margin +4.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
OPAL Fuels Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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OPAL Fuels Inc. Fair Value Envelope
OPAL Fuels Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
OPAL Fuels Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
OPAL Fuels Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
OPAL Fuels Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that OPAL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.00 to a high of 13.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 8.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.00 to a high of 13.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
OPAL Fuels Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $8.35M worth of OPAL shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
90.0K
186.22K
0
0.00
+186K
+$186K
3-6 Months
3.0M
8.01M
0
0.00
+8.0M
+$8.01M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
58.1K
148.96K
0
0.00
+149K
+$149K
Top Buyers
Comora Mark S
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$8.01M
Comora Adam
Officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer
$117K
Nisar Nadeem
Director
$116K
Dols Scott V.
Director
$102K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $8.35M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
opal Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on OPAL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.