Old National Bancorp

Old National Bancorp

ONBยทNASDAQ

$23.32

-0.22%
Financial ServicesBanks - Regional

Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits; and offers loans, such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. The company also provides debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access, online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services; cash management, private banking, brokerage, trust, investment advisory, and other traditional banking services; wealth management, investment, and foreign currency services; and treasury management, merchant, health savings, and capital markets services, as well as community development lending and equity investment solutions. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a total of 162 banking centers located primarily in the states of Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$9.01B
EPS1.8000
P/E Ratio12.95
Earnings Date07/28/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.9).

Valuation inputs: P/E 12.9, earnings yield +7.7%, momentum -0.2%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +7.9%, ROIC +3.7%).

Profitability stack: net margin +18.0%, ROE +7.9%, ROIC +3.7%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +88.2%, momentum -0.2%, net margin +18.0%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Old National Bancorp Market vs Earnings Trajectory

ONB ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Old National Bancorp

Old National Bancorp Fair Value Envelope

ONB ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that ONB has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $23.318, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Old National Bancorp.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $23.318
3Y+19.0%
5Y+31.0%
10Y+71.0%
3Y+100.0%
5Y+311.0%
10Y+470.0%
3Y+56.0%
5Y+196.0%
10Y+398.0%
3Y-16.0%
5Y+210.0%
10Y+2647.0%
3Y-18.0%
5Y+237.0%
10Y-419.0%
3Y+54.0%
5Y+214.0%
10Y+386.0%
Old National Bancorp

Old National Bancorp Profit Bridge

ONB ยท NASDAQ
Revenue3.71B
Cost of Goods Sold (1.35B)
Gross Profit2.36B
Operating Expenses (1.49B)
Operating Income874.14M
Interest Expense (1.21B)
Other Income/Expense-32.74M
Pretax Income841.39M
Income Tax (172.14M)
Net Income669.26M
Net Income
669.26M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

63.6%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

23.6%

Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.

Net Profit Margin

18.0%

Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.

Effective Tax Rate

20.5%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

63.60%
Gross Profit Margin
6%
3Y-26.0%
5Y-28.0%
10Y-32.0%
23.56%
Operating Profit Margin
2%
3Y-20.0%
5Y-17.0%
10Y-24.0%
18.04%
Net Profit Margin
-1%
3Y-22.0%
5Y-28.0%
10Y-13.0%
7.88%
Return on Equity
-7%
3Y-6.0%
5Y+3.0%
10Y+6.0%
0.93%
Return on Assets
-8%
3Y+1.0%
5Y-6.0%
10Y+3.0%
3.74%
Return on Invested Capital
-12%
3Y-6.0%
5Y-5.0%
10Y+11.0%
ONB

Old National Bancorp Cash Conversion Engine

ONB ยท NASDAQ
Net Income669.26M
Depreciation & Amortization123.60M
Stock-Based Compensation38.21M
Change in Working Capital-198.99M
Others49.38M
Capital Expenditures-44.06M
Free Cash Flow637.41M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

95.2%

Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.

CapEx Intensity

6.5%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

+7.7%

Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.

Working Capital Impact

-$198.99M

Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Old National Bancorp Funding & Solvency Profile

ONB ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents537.32M
Net Receivables0.00
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets537 M
Property, Plant & Equipment690.40M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets2.89B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets0.00
Total Non-Current Assets690 M
Total Assets
73.00B

Financial Health Analysis

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

7.58x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

537 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

1% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Old National Bancorp Street Expectations Map

ONB ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that ONB stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 27.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.00 to a high of 30.00.

Lowest Target
25.00
7.21%
Consensus Target
27.17
16.52%
Highest Target
30.00
28.66%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 27.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.00 to a high of 30.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+16.5%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

18.4% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Old National Bancorp Insider Positioning

ONB ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $50.38M worth of ONB shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

1.9M

50.38M

Net Activity

-50.4M

-$50.38M

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
OBT

Otto Bremer Trust

10 Percent Owner

1.9M sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$50.00M

2
CNJ

Chulos Nicholas J

Officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec

15.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$376K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $50.38M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Insider Participation

High Selling

2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

0.66%
Dividend Yield
-3%
3Y-39.0%
5Y-10.0%
10Y-40.0%
ย 

onb Dividend History

ONB
10Y CAGR +1%
Latest $0.145
Annual $0.71
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%