Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
$236.06
+3.0%Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 32.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 32.1, earnings yield +3.1%, momentum +3.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +23.8%, ROIC +19.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +18.6%, ROE +23.8%, ROIC +19.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +22.9%, momentum +3.0%, net margin +18.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ODFL stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 212.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 138.00 to a high of 240.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 212.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 138.00 to a high of 240.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $14.20M worth of ODFL shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
5.1K
965.85K
-966K
-$966K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
67.8K
13.24M
-13.2M
-$13.24M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Congdon David S
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$8.18M
Gantt Greg C
Director
$3.33M
Congdon Earl E
Officer: Chair Emeritus & Sr. Advisor
$2.07M
Gabosch Bradley R
Director
$609K
Kelley Christopher James
Officer: Svp - Operations
$16K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $14.20M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
odfl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ODFL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.