Natera, Inc.

Natera, Inc.

NTRAยทNASDAQ

$211.85

-0.41%
HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & Research

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$30.34B
EPS-1.5200
P/E Ratio-139.37
Earnings Date08/06/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -139.4).

Valuation inputs: P/E -139.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -0.4%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -12.2%, ROIC -11.1%).

Profitability stack: net margin -9.0%, ROE -12.2%, ROIC -11.1%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +31.7%, momentum -0.4%, net margin -9.0%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Natera, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

NTRA ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Natera, Inc.

Natera, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

NTRA ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that NTRA has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $211.85, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Natera, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $211.85
3Y-73.0%
5Y-46.0%
10Y-18.0%
3Y+181.0%
5Y+490.0%
10Y+962.0%
3Y-62.0%
5Y-9.0%
10Y+117.0%
3Y-150.0%
5Y-218.0%
10Y-391.0%
3Y-123.0%
5Y-154.0%
10Y-212.0%
3Y+80.0%
5Y+169.0%
10Y+1090.0%
Natera, Inc.

Natera, Inc. Profit Bridge

NTRA ยท NASDAQ
Revenue2.31B
Cost of Goods Sold (810.63M)
Gross Profit1.50B
Operating Expenses (1.81B)
Operating Income-309.91M
Interest Expense (4.07M)
Other Income/Expense41.82M
Pretax Income-268.09M
Income Tax (-59.93M)
Net Income-208.16M
Net Income
-208.16M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

64.8%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

-13.4%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-9.0%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.

64.85%
Gross Profit Margin
8%
3Y+46.0%
5Y+35.0%
10Y+73.0%
-13.44%
Operating Profit Margin
3%
3Y-80.0%
5Y-76.0%
10Y-70.0%
-9.03%
Net Profit Margin
-20%
3Y-86.0%
5Y-85.0%
10Y-80.0%
-12.16%
Return on Equity
-24%
3Y-84.0%
5Y-74.0%
10Y-86.0%
-8.30%
Return on Assets
-28%
3Y-79.0%
5Y-66.0%
10Y-82.0%
-11.13%
Return on Invested Capital
-30%
3Y-76.0%
5Y-59.0%
10Y-81.0%
NTRA

Natera, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

NTRA ยท NASDAQ
Net Income-208.16M
Depreciation & Amortization0.00
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital70.84M
Others352.62M
Capital Expenditures-106.19M
Free Cash Flow109.11M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-52.4%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

CapEx Intensity

49.3%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

+57.6%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

+$70.84M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

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Natera, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

NTRA ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents1.09B
Net Receivables417.60M
Inventory70.72M
Other Current Assets75.56M
Total Current Assets2 B
Property, Plant & Equipment403.37M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets508.22M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets51.00M
Total Non-Current Assets454 M
Total Assets
2.61B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

2.96x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.47x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

1 B

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

63% Current

Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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Natera, Inc. Street Expectations Map

NTRA ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that NTRA stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 261.29, with estimates ranging from a low of 220.00 to a high of 285.00.

Lowest Target
220.00
3.85%
Consensus Target
261.29
23.34%
Highest Target
285.00
34.53%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 261.29, with estimates ranging from a low of 220.00 to a high of 285.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+23.3%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

24.9% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

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Natera, Inc. Insider Positioning

NTRA ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $95.12M worth of NTRA shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

28.8K

5.74M

Net Activity

-5.7M

-$5.74M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

135.2K

31.62M

Net Activity

-31.6M

-$31.62M

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

245.4K

48.26M

Net Activity

-48.3M

-$48.26M

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

61.5K

9.49M

Net Activity

-9.5M

-$9.49M

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
CSL

Chapman Steven Leonard

Director, Officer: Ceo And President

272.2K sharesโ€ข16 transactions

$56.06M

2
RM

Rabinowitz Matthew

Director, Officer: Executive Chairman

62.9K sharesโ€ข11 transactions

$11.90M

3
BMB

Brophy Michael Burkes

Officer: Chief Financial Officer

41.3K sharesโ€ข22 transactions

$8.73M

4
RD

Rabinowitz Daniel

Officer: Sec. And Chief Legal Officer

22.9K sharesโ€ข13 transactions

$4.07M

5
MS

Moshkevich Solomon

Officer: President, Clinicaldiagnostics

19.5K sharesโ€ข20 transactions

$3.95M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $95.12M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$5.74M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

No Dividend Yield Data

NTRA has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

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ntra Dividend History

NTRA
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%