Natera, Inc.
$211.85
-0.41%Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -139.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -139.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -0.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -12.2%, ROIC -11.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin -9.0%, ROE -12.2%, ROIC -11.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +31.7%, momentum -0.4%, net margin -9.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Natera, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Natera, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Natera, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Natera, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Natera, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Natera, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NTRA stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 261.29, with estimates ranging from a low of 220.00 to a high of 285.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 261.29, with estimates ranging from a low of 220.00 to a high of 285.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Natera, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $95.12M worth of NTRA shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
28.8K
5.74M
-5.7M
-$5.74M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
135.2K
31.62M
-31.6M
-$31.62M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
245.4K
48.26M
-48.3M
-$48.26M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
61.5K
9.49M
-9.5M
-$9.49M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Chapman Steven Leonard
Director, Officer: Ceo And President
$56.06M
Rabinowitz Matthew
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$11.90M
Brophy Michael Burkes
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$8.73M
Rabinowitz Daniel
Officer: Sec. And Chief Legal Officer
$4.07M
Moshkevich Solomon
Officer: President, Clinicaldiagnostics
$3.95M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $95.12M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโmay warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
NTRA has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
ntra Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NTRA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.