Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
$36.20
-0.58%Napco Security Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells electronic security products in the United States and internationally. The company offers access control systems, door-locking products, intrusion and fire alarm systems, and video surveillance systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications. Its access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. The company's alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. It also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. The company markets and sells its products primarily to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 24.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 24.8, earnings yield +4.0%, momentum -0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +25.7%, ROIC +23.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +23.9%, ROE +25.7%, ROIC +23.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +14.9%, momentum -0.6%, net margin +23.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Positive earnings growth shows the company is improving its profitability over time.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 25.9%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Moderate P/E ratio suggests fair market valuation relative to earnings.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NSSC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 49.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 49.00 to a high of 49.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 49.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 49.00 to a high of 49.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $225K and sold $15.40M worth of NSSC shares, resulting in $15.18M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
335.0K
14.64M
-14.6M
-$14.64M
6-9 Months
10.0K
224.95K
19.0K
764.75K
-540K
-$540K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Carrieri Michael
Officer: Executive Vp Of Engineering
$225K
Top Sellers
Soloway Richard
Director, Officer: Ceo, Chairman Of Board, Secy
$14.64M
Spinelli Stephen M
Officer: Senior Vice President Of Sales
$765K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $15.18M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
nssc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NSSC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.