NeuroPace, Inc.
$15.88
-2.5%NeuroPace, Inc. operates as a medical device company in the United States. It develops and sells RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system for treating medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized real-time treatment at the seizure source. The company's RNS system also records continuous brain activity data; and enables clinicians to monitor patients in person and remotely. It sells its products to hospital facilities for initial RNS system implant procedures and for replacement procedures. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -24.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E -24.1, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -1.1%, ROIC -18.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -21.5%, ROE -1.1%, ROIC -18.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +82.0%, momentum -2.5%, net margin -21.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
NeuroPace, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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NeuroPace, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
NeuroPace, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
NeuroPace, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
NeuroPace, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
NeuroPace, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NPCE stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 22.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 22.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
NeuroPace, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $977K and sold $451K worth of NPCE shares, resulting in $526K of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
25.0K
399.25K
-399K
-$399K
6-9 Months
6.2K
61.85K
0
0.00
+62K
+$62K
9-12 Months
88.0K
915.56K
5.9K
52.11K
+863K
+$863K
Top Buyers
Williams Patrick F.
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$916K
Fischer Frank M
Director
$24K
Kumar Rakhi
Director
$15K
Geiger Uri
Director
$12K
Lacob Joseph
Director
$11K
Top Sellers
Morrell Martha
Officer: Chief Medical Officer
$441K
Becker Joel
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$10K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Positive insider sentiment with $526K net buying. Buying activity substantially exceeds selling, indicating insider confidence.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Strong buy/sell ratio. Buying is at least double the selling activity, suggesting robust insider confidence.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
No Dividend Yield Data
NPCE has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
npce Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NPCE by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.