NextNav Inc.
$21.57
+8.2%NextNav Inc. provides next generation global positioning system (GPS) and 3D geolocation services. The company delivers next generation positioning, navigation, and timing solutions through its network-based Pinnacle and TerraPoiNT solutions. Its Pinnacle 3D geolocation service is commercially available in approximately 4,400 cities and towns in the United States; and its TerraPoiNT terrestrial-based encrypted network has deployments in 51 total markets nationally. The company sells its solutions directly to customers or through partners. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -15.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E -15.2, earnings yield N/A, momentum +8.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.2%, ROIC -29.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin -41.4%, ROE +2.2%, ROIC -29.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +134.8%, momentum +8.2%, net margin -41.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
NextNav Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Positive earnings growth shows the company is improving its profitability over time.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 82.3%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Stock price (+82.3%) is outpacing earnings growth (+19.4%), suggesting the market may be pricing in future growth. Monitor if earnings can catch up to justify the valuation.
NextNav Inc. Fair Value Envelope
NextNav Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
NextNav Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
NextNav Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
NextNav Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 34.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.00 to a high of 50.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 34.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.00 to a high of 50.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
NextNav Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $3.29M and sold $10.22M worth of NN shares, resulting in $6.93M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
34.3K
603.80K
-604K
-$604K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
29.1K
481.20K
-481K
-$481K
6-9 Months
198.1K
3.29M
629.9K
7.93M
-4.6M
-$4.64M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
68.7K
1.21M
-1.2M
-$1.21M
Top Buyers
Gray Timothy
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$2.59M
Samberg Joseph D
10 Percent Owner
$693K
Top Sellers
Samberg Joseph D
10 Percent Owner
$6.67M
Sorond Mariam
Director, Officer: Ceo, President And Director
$2.78M
Insley Susan Brasse
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$297K
Shams Sammaad
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$220K
Black James S
Officer: General Counsel
$120K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $6.93M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
NN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
nn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.