NextDecade Corporation
$8.54
+1.2%NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG); and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development activities on the Rio Grande LNG terminal facility located in the Port of Brownsville in southern Texas. It also focuses on a carbon capture and storage project (CCS project) at the terminal, as well as on other CCS projects with third-party industrial source facilities. The company was founded in 2010 is based in Houston, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -7.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E -7.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -3.2%, ROIC -2.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin 0.0%, ROE -3.2%, ROIC -2.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +81.5%, momentum +1.2%, net margin 0.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
NextDecade Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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NextDecade Corporation Fair Value Envelope
No Revenue Data
NEXT has not reported any revenue values in the available annual periods.
NextDecade Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
No Gross Profit Margin Data
NEXT has not reported any gross profit margin values in the available annual periods.
No Operating Profit Margin Data
NEXT has not reported any operating profit margin values in the available annual periods.
No Net Profit Margin Data
NEXT has not reported any net profit margin values in the available annual periods.
NextDecade Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
NextDecade Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
NextDecade Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NEXT stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Consensus overvaluation: Analysts agree the stock is richly valued with limited upside. Consider booking profits or defensive positioning unless you have contrarian conviction in unrecognized catalysts.
NextDecade Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $63.14M worth of NEXT shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
71.5K
505.50K
0
0.00
+506K
+$506K
3-6 Months
2.6M
15.14M
0
0.00
+15.1M
+$15.14M
6-9 Months
7.6M
47.50M
0
0.00
+47.5M
+$47.50M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd.
10 Percent Owner
$53.70M
Vrattos William C
Director
$4.34M
Bardin Hill Investment Partners Lp
Other: Director By Deputization
$2.49M
Schatzman Matthew K
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$2.01M
Beall Pamela K.M.
Director
$506K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $63.14M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
next Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NEXT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.